SAP Nears a Defining Q2 Report After Acquiring Dremio and Settling EU Probe, but the Stock Remains Under Heavy Pressure
Published on 07/20/2026 at 05:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP heads into its second-quarter earnings release on July 23 with two significant strategic milestones in the bag: the closure of its acquisition of Dremio, a data-lakehouse platform specialist, and the formal end of an EU antitrust investigation into its maintenance and support practices. Yet neither development has managed to revive investor confidence. The stock closed Friday at €138.50, down 1.81% on the day and 33.53% lower since the start of the year. Over a 12-month horizon, the shares have shed 47.45% of their value, leaving them just 5.89% above a 52-week low of €130.80 hit on June 25.
The quarterly numbers, due at 22:05 MESZ on July 23, followed by an analyst call at 23:00, will test whether the company's massive investments in artificial intelligence are starting to pay off. A quiet period has been in effect since June 22, meaning management has been silent on recent trading — a silence that has amplified the focus on technical levels and analyst forecasts.
Analyst views diverge sharply on AI monetisation
UBS analyst Michael Briest slashed his price target from €205 to €164 in mid-July, though he maintained a “Buy” rating. The cut reflects the growing complexity of monetising AI agents inside large corporate ERP systems — a process that is proving slower than initially anticipated. JPMorgan took a more cautious stance, rating SAP “Neutral” with a €175 target, while Morningstar’s Rob Hales pegged fair value at €265 but flagged macro risks tied to the Iran conflict and a broader rotation away from tech stocks that could weigh on IT budgets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
A warning from IBM has added to the unease: the US rival noted that corporate IT spending is increasingly shifting toward AI hardware rather than enterprise software, a trend that could crimp demand for SAP’s own offerings. Whether that dynamic is already hurting the company’s top line will be one of the key questions answered on July 23.
EU settlement and Dremio deal clear the decks — but execution is the real test
The European Commission’s decision to close its cartel case against SAP in early July removed a regulatory overhang. In exchange, SAP accepted a set of ten-year commitments, including the elimination of reactivation fees for on-premise solutions — a move welcomed by the German-speaking SAP user group, whose technology chief Michael Bloch called it a boost to customer choice.
At roughly the same time, the Dremio acquisition was completed. SAP sees the deal as a catalyst for its “Agentic AI” strategy, improving data integration for clients and speeding the deployment of AI-powered workflows. Whether that translates into measurable revenue growth, however, remains an open question. The market consensus for cloud revenue growth in the second quarter stands at 22% — a figure that will be scrutinised as a proxy for the success of the entire AI pivot.
Technical support from buybacks and a make-or-break outlook
SAP’s existing share buyback programme, authorised for up to €2.6 billion, is set to conclude by the end of July 2026 and could provide some mechanical support to the stock. But the real catalyst will be management’s guidance for the second half. With the stock trading less than 6% above its 12-month trough and annualised volatility running at 36.49%, the nerves are palpable. The July 23 report will show whether the operational progress on cloud and AI is enough to reverse one of the weakest share-price performances in the company’s recent history.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 20 July
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
