SAP's €2.6B Buyback and Geopolitical Jitters Set a Tense Stage Ahead of Q2 Earnings
Published on 07/11/2026 at 09:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shareholders endured another volatile trading week as the Walldorf-based software giant's stock continued to slide, weighed down by both geopolitical turmoil and a persistent bearish trend. The shares closed Friday at €138.30, a marginal advance on the day but still leaving the stock down roughly 0.7% from the previous Friday, according to one market reading. Since January, the loss has widened to over 31%, while the 12-month decline stands at more than 47% – a figure that starkly contrasts with the company's decision to press ahead with a €2.6 billion buyback program.
The most proximate trigger for the latest leg lower came from the Middle East. Reports of US strikes on Iranian targets abruptly ended a brief period of calm between Washington and Tehran, with Iran retaliating by attacking US military installations in neighboring Gulf states. SAP, as one of the DAX's heaviest components, could not escape the flight to safety. The stock shed 4.1% on Wednesday and another 1.2% on Thursday, closing at €136.36 – just €1.46 above the 12-month low of €130.80 touched on June 25. The broader DAX proved more resilient, ending Thursday up 0.9% at 25,118 points, underscoring the selective nature of the risk aversion.
Despite the price slide, SAP management is leaning into share repurchases. The current tranche, worth up to €2.6 billion, is scheduled to run through the end of July. In market circles, the buyback is read as a deliberate signal that the board views the current valuation as too cheap. That view finds some support in consensus analyst estimates: aggregated price targets hover around €214, implying more than 50% upside from current levels. JPMorgan Chase reaffirmed a €175 target in early July, representing a potential gain of over 26%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Yet the technical picture offers little immediate encouragement. At €138.30, the stock trades 5.73% above its 52-week floor and nearly 48% below the July 2025 peak of €265.75. Both the 50-day moving average (€145.71) and the 200-day moving average (€178.70) sit well above the price, the latter by roughly 23%. The RSI of 45.6 points to a neutral zone, not a deeply oversold condition. With a 30-day annualized volatility of 38.5%, the shares remain prone to sharp swings.
All attention now centers on the July 23 earnings release, when SAP reports second-quarter and first-half 2026 results shortly after 22:05 MESZ. The company is currently in a quiet period, barring any official guidance until then. Analysts are split: some see a buying opportunity at these depressed levels, while others caution that ongoing cost-cutting efforts and the costly cloud transformation still need to demonstrate tangible margin improvement.
For the next several trading days, two forces will dictate the stock's direction: the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the building anticipation ahead of the quarterly numbers. A break below the €130.80 support level would reinforce the existing downtrend and could invite further selling pressure. Conversely, a successful defense of that floor might allow the shares to drift sideways until the earnings give investors a clearer read on the company's financial health.
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