SAP's 34% Slide Collides With Analyst Optimism as Quiet Period Begins Near 52-Week Low
Published on 06/24/2026 at 18:35 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP is heading into a four-week quiet period with its stock trading at levels not seen in a year, despite record-breaking cloud revenue and a €10 billion buyback. The disconnect between the company's operational momentum and its market valuation has rarely been wider: analysts see potential upside of more than 100%, yet the shares keep sinking.
The stock closed at €132.82, just €2 above its 52-week low of €130.82. Since January, SAP has lost 34% of its value. Technical indicators paint a bleak picture — the relative strength index sits at 35.4, flirting with oversold territory, while the stock trades nearly 28% below its 200-day moving average. The official quiet period, which began on June 22, means management will offer no guidance or commentary until the second-quarter results are released on July 23.
Beneath the share price weakness, SAP's business is firing on all cylinders. In the first quarter, cloud revenue climbed 27% on a currency-adjusted basis, powered by migrations to the company's newer web-based software versions. The operating result improved to roughly €2.9 billion, and the cloud backlog — a key leading indicator for future revenue — expanded 20%. To reinforce its strategy, SAP has been buying back its own shares aggressively, authorizing up to €10 billion in repurchases through 2027, and it has completed the acquisition of data specialist Reltio, with a further deal for Dremio still pending.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
So why is the market so sour? Two forces are weighing heavily. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates elevated — and hawkish hints from some policymakers about possible further hikes — is discounting the present value of future earnings for growth stocks like SAP. At the same time, Oracle’s announcement of up to $95 billion in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure has stoked fears of a sector-wide margin squeeze. Investors worry that cloud providers will have to spend heavily on computing capacity, eating into profitability.
AI monetization also remains a sticking point. SAP plans to roll out over 200 specialized AI agents, starting with a new HR assistant in June, but those features are largely locked behind premium contracts. The revenue uplift has been slower than many had hoped, leaving analysts to argue that the market is underestimating SAP's potential as an AI platform. That conviction is reflected in their price targets: Bernstein Research sees the stock at €276, Berenberg at €215, UBS at €205, Deutsche Bank at €200, and even the most cautious major bank — JPMorgan — rates it a "hold" with a target of €175. Those levels imply gains of 50% to more than 100% from the current price.
The quiet period leaves SAP investors reliant on macro data and the performance of other US tech stocks for direction over the next four weeks. All eyes will be on July 23, when management reports second-quarter numbers. The two metrics that will determine the immediate trajectory are the growth in the cloud backlog and the cloud gross margin. If those figures confirm the momentum seen in Q1, the gap between analyst targets and the actual share price could begin to close. Until then, the stock is left to drift in a vacuum of company news, with a floor near €130 and a ceiling defined only by hope.
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