SAP’s Antitrust Truce, €2.6B Buyback, and Dremio Deal Set the Stage for a Pivotal Earnings Update
Published on 07/10/2026 at 13:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
After closing at €138.32 on Thursday, SAP shares edged up 0.48% to €139.10 on Friday, but the modest bounce does little to alter the punishing landscape. The stock remains 47.95% below its 52-week high of €265.75 (set on July 17, 2025) and sits just 6.35% above the 12-month low of €130.80 touched on June 25. On a 12-month basis, the shares have lost nearly 47% of their value, and the year-to-date decline stands at 31.52%. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish bias: the stock is trading 4.55% below its 50-day moving average and a steep 22.16% below the 200-day average, while annualized volatility has ranged between 39% and 45%, underlining persistent investor unease.
SAP moved to remove one layer of regulatory uncertainty this week by resolving an EU antitrust probe that had been hanging over the company since September. The European Commission had raised concerns about potential competitive distortions in maintenance and support services for on?premise products. Without admitting the allegations, SAP agreed to offer customers greater freedom to mix and match service providers for different parts of their SAP landscapes. EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera welcomed the commitments as a step toward more flexibility, transparency, and planning security for businesses worldwide. The cloud segment of the business is not affected by the settlement. For on?premise users, the new rules clear a legal cloud and could help solidify long?term client relationships.
While Brussels was extracting concessions, SAP was quietly pushing ahead with a €2.6 billion share buyback tranche scheduled to run through the end of July. The program sends a classic signal that management considers the stock undervalued, and the lower the share price sinks, the more shares the company can retire for each euro spent. Yet so far, the buying has done little to arrest the slide—the stock remains 22.79% below its 200?day average and has been unable to reclaim the €140 handle for any sustained period.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The buyback is only one element of a broader strategy to reposition SAP for the artificial?intelligence era. On July 6, the company completed the acquisition of Dremio, a data?specialist whose “Open Data Lakehouse” platform aims to unify data sources without cumbersome migrations. The technology is expected to feed SAP’s AI assistant, Joule, with richer, more integrated data, making the helper more effective in the core ERP processes where SAP is embedding it. The deal underscores the tension between the company’s calls for cost discipline and its heavy investment in cloud and AI infrastructure.
All eyes now turn to July 23, when SAP reports second?quarter and first?half results. Analysts forecast revenue of roughly €9.85 billion, an increase of about 9% year?on?year, and earnings per share of €1.76, representing a jump of nearly 20%. More than the top?line growth, investors will scrutinize the cloud backlog—a forward?looking indicator of committed revenue—and whether the management’s austerity drive is translating into margin improvement. If the numbers confirm that spending restraint is paying off alongside the AI bets, confidence could begin to rebuild. For the moment, the stock is caught between a near?term floor at €130.80 and a long?term downtrend that has yet to show a convincing reversal.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 10 July
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
