SAP’s Cloud Backlog Hits €22.9 Billion, but Acquisition Costs Force a Guidance Trim
Published on 07/25/2026 at 20:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The whiplash was brutal. Just two trading days after plumbing a 52-week low of €127.52, SAP shares surged 9.15% on Friday to close at €140.80. The trigger was a second-quarter earnings release that delivered a paradox: a record cloud backlog alongside a lowered profit forecast.
Cloud Momentum Accelerates
The headline number that moved markets was the cloud order backlog, which swelled 27% year-on-year to €22.93 billion by the end of June. SAP says the growth rate actually accelerated from prior quarters, giving investors rare visibility into future revenue streams. Cloud revenue itself climbed 22% to €6.28 billion, while the cloud ERP suite — the company’s core offering — grew 25% to €5.53 billion.
CEO Christian Klein’s bet on the “Autonomous Enterprise” is gaining traction with large customers. AI solutions and data-cloud capabilities featured in more than 90% of the 50 largest deals closed during the quarter. The company plans to deploy over 400 autonomous AI agents by year-end, with the “Joule” assistant automating customer processes.
The Cost of Transformation
Yet the cloud growth comes with a price tag. SAP lowered its full-year operating profit guidance to between €11.8 billion and €12.2 billion, down from a previous ceiling of €12.3 billion. The culprit is two recently completed acquisitions: Dremio, which closed on July 6, and Prior Labs, finalized on July 17. The management cited dilution effects from integrating these data-platform specialists.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The IFRS operating profit still rose 8% to €2.6 billion in the quarter, while earnings per share jumped 30% to €1.89. SAP is maintaining its cloud revenue target of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion for the full year.
A Stock Still Deep in the Red
Despite Friday’s dramatic reversal, the year-to-date picture remains grim. SAP shares are still down roughly 32% since January, and trade nearly 45% below their 52-week high of €254.15. The relative strength index sits at 52.5 — neutral territory — suggesting the rally hasn’t exhausted itself technically.
The immediate resistance lies at the 50-day moving average of €144.01. A clean break above that level could open a path toward the 200-day average at €173.78, though that remains a distant target. Failure to hold current levels risks a retest of the €127.52 support.
Internal Efficiencies vs. Integration Costs
SAP reports that AI adoption has already boosted software development productivity by 30%. If those efficiency gains spread across the organization, they could offset the rising integration costs over time. For now, though, the market is weighing whether the acquisition-related margin pressure is temporary or signals a structural drag from building out AI infrastructure.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Sector Sentiment Looms Large
The coming week brings earnings from Microsoft on July 28 and Amazon on July 30. Both hyperscalers are bellwethers for enterprise cloud spending, and any disappointment — particularly around capital expenditure weighing on free cash flow — could spill over onto SAP. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are already causing longer decision cycles among some large customers, adding another layer of uncertainty.
The stock’s annualized volatility of roughly 43.5% reflects the market’s cautious stance on the AI roadmap’s translation into tangible revenue. Friday’s surge has bought time and restored some confidence, but the fundamental question remains: can the record backlog sustain the rally, or will the integration costs eventually catch up?
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SAP Stock: New Analysis - 25 July
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