SAP’s EU Antitrust Truce Fails to Lift Stock as Geopolitical Jitters and Earnings Test Loom
Published on 07/11/2026 at 14:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP managed to dodge a European Commission fine this week, but the reprieve did little to arrest the slide in its shares. The software giant secured a settlement on 9 July 2026 by offering binding commitments — valid for ten years worldwide — designed to open up the market for maintenance and support of on-premise software. Under the deal, SAP will introduce alternative licence-fee calculations, waive re-introduction charges, and cut retroactive maintenance costs for customers returning after a break. The Commission had launched an investigation in September 2025 over concerns that SAP was stifling competition in its service business.
If investors were hoping for a relief rally, they were disappointed. The stock closed Friday at €138.50, a mere 0.13% gain on the day and a weekly loss of 0.59%. That left the shares down 31.44% since the start of the year and a staggering 47.09% over the past twelve months. The distance from the 52-week low of €130.80 — touched just two weeks ago on 25 June — stands at roughly 6%, while the 50-day moving average of €145.72 remains nearly 5% above the current price. The 200-day average, at €178.70, is more than 23% higher, underscoring how far below its long-term trend the stock now trades.
The real catalyst for the latest leg lower came from the Middle East. Hopes of a ceasefire between the US and Iran were shattered midweek by reports of American strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated with attacks on US military installations in neighbouring Gulf states. The escalation sent SAP, a heavyweight in the DAX, sharply lower: it lost 4.1% on Wednesday and another 1.2% on Thursday, briefly touching €136.36. Market participants pointed to classic risk-off behaviour, with investors rotating away from growth names in times of geopolitical stress. The broader DAX, by contrast, managed a 0.9% gain on Thursday.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Technically, the picture remains bleak. The relative strength index stands at 45.6, signalling neither oversold nor overbought conditions, while annualised 30-day volatility of 38.47% confirms that the swings are far from over. Should the stock break decisively below the recent low of €130.80, it would reinforce the downtrend that has dominated since the mid-2025 high of €265.75.
All eyes are now on 23 July, when SAP reports second-quarter and first-half results after the market close. Consensus forecasts call for revenue of roughly €9.85 billion and earnings per share of €1.76, a 20% year-on-year increase. More than the headline numbers, analysts are expected to scrutinise the cloud backlog — considered the key measure of momentum behind SAP’s AI-powered subscription models, including the “Joule” assistant now being woven into its ERP systems. The company recently completed the acquisition of data-specialist Dremio, a move intended to unify the data layer for AI applications.
The EU settlement removes a significant regulatory overhang, but it has done nothing to address the twin pressures of geopolitics and the fast-approaching earnings test. Whether the shares can find a floor ahead of the 23 July numbers depends on whether the market sees the current valuation as a buying opportunity — or as a reflection of deeper uncertainty about the pace of SAP’s cloud and AI transformation.
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