SAP’s EU Concession Gambit and $95 Billion Oracle Shadow Leave Investors Between Hope and Fear
Published on 06/24/2026 at 11:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The cloud over SAP’s European regulatory troubles appears to be lifting, but a different storm — Oracle’s eye-watering $95 billion capital-expenditure pledge — is keeping the German software group’s shares pinned near a 52-week low. Brussels is now testing concrete concessions from the Walldorf-based company, raising the prospect that the antitrust probe launched in September 2025 could close without the billion-euro fine that once loomed.
SAP has offered to scrap certain fees and make it easier for customers to switch maintenance providers. If the European Commission accepts the proposals, the case ends without any penalty. That would remove a risk that, under EU rules, could have reached 10 percent of annual revenue — a figure the internal management team had already discounted but that investors had not fully set aside.
The shares, however, have yet to stage a convincing recovery. They touched a fresh 52-week floor of €130.82 earlier this week before edging back to a recent €133.78. The year-to-date decline stands at roughly 34 percent, and the technical picture remains bleak: the stock trades nearly 9 percent below its 50-day moving average and about 27 percent below the 200-day line. The relative strength index sits at 37 — territory that suggests oversold conditions but has not yet triggered a definitive reversal.
Much of the selling pressure stems from Oracle’s disclosure that it plans to spend up to $95 billion on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. The announcement reignited fears across the software sector that rising capital intensity will squeeze margins everywhere. For SAP shareholders already nursing deep losses, the Oracle shock added another dose of anxiety.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Against that headwind, a chorus of analysts from major investment banks is singing a sharply different tune. Bernstein sets a price target of €276, implying more than a doubling from current levels. Berenberg rates the stock a “Buy” with a €215 target, arguing the market underestimates SAP’s pivot toward an AI platform for structured enterprise data. UBS holds a €205 target, betting on margin improvement in the second half of 2026.
The company is not standing still. SAP has announced the acquisition of Prior Labs and Dremio for a combined value exceeding €1 billion. Both deals, expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, are designed to bolster the company’s ability to apply artificial intelligence to supply-chain and financial-reporting workflows — an area management considers more promising than general-purpose language models.
The next hard catalyst comes on July 23, 2026, when SAP reports results for the second quarter and the first half. The cloud order backlog, which rose 20 percent to roughly €22 billion in the first quarter, will be the key metric. Bank of America analysts, who maintain a buy recommendation, forecast cloud revenue growth above 10 percent. If the July numbers match or beat that pace, the recent low could recede quickly.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Until then, the quiet-period rule bars management from commenting on business developments. Investors must weigh the EU concessions, the acquisition spend, and the bullish analyst consensus against the Oracle-driven selloff and a depressed chart — a tension that leaves the stock caught somewhere between deep value and deeper uncertainty.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 24 June
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
