SAP's EU Settlement Reshapes Maintenance Business as Cloud Earnings Test Approaches
Published on 07/17/2026 at 16:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The European Commission has closed a long-running antitrust investigation into SAP's on-premise maintenance practices, securing a ten-year commitment from the software giant that fundamentally alters how it can operate in that segment. In exchange for avoiding a potential fine of up to 10 percent of global annual revenue, SAP has agreed to open its support business to competition — a move that could reshape the economics of its legacy customer base.
Under the settlement, companies running older ERP systems such as Legacy ECC may now split their SAP landscape across multiple support providers, a practice the German group had effectively blocked for years. Customers can also cancel unused software licenses and no longer face steep reactivation fees after taking a break from support. The changes directly affect competitors like Rimini Street, which had struggled to break into SAP's walled-off maintenance market.
Analysts view the outcome as a double-edged sword for SAP. The company forfeits pricing power in the high-margin maintenance business, but the concessions apply only to on-premise installations — creating a structural incentive for clients to migrate faster to the cloud-based S/4HANA platform, where support and software are bundled into a single subscription. "The EU ruling effectively accelerates SAP's own cloud strategy," one analyst noted.
That migration will be front and centre when SAP reports second-quarter and first-half results after the market close on 23 July 2026. The stock has lost roughly 30 percent since the start of the year, and the earnings call at 23:05 MESZ will test whether the cloud push can offset any erosion in traditional maintenance revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The cloud business did deliver robust momentum in the first quarter, with cloud revenue growing 19 percent as reported and 27 percent in constant currency. Management has maintained full-year guidance of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion in cloud sales for 2026. Strategic acquisitions are also building out the portfolio: SAP closed the purchase of data analytics firm Dremio on 6 July, added Reltio earlier, and on Friday confirmed the completion of the Prior Labs takeover, a specialist in tabular AI models. The company plans to invest more than €1 billion in AI over the next four years, with products such as the Joule assistant and Business AI Platform designed to automate workflows.
Yet the bull case faces significant headwinds. Analysts point to margin pressure in the second half of the year as hardware costs rise and spending on AI infrastructure climbs. Recent acquisitions may dilute earnings in the short term rather than contribute immediately. Meanwhile, competition in cloud and enterprise software remains fierce, and some customers are wary of usage-based pricing for new AI tools. Internal challenges — data readiness, workforce retraining, executive turnover linked to the accelerated AI roadmap — could also create friction.
The market's response to the EU settlement and the acquisition news has been muted. On Friday, SAP shares slipped 0.75 percent in XETRA trading to €140.00, compared with a close of €141.06 the prior day. That decline was relatively mild against a broader tech sell-off driven by US equities. The relative strength index (RSI) of 49.3 points to a neutral trend with no clear direction.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The stock now sits just 7.84 percent above its 52-week low of €130.80, reached at the end of June, and remains 20.22 percent below its 200-day moving average. The €130.80 level has become a key floor for investors to watch.
For the upcoming earnings release, the central question is whether cloud growth can sustain its pace and whether AI products are translating into real user adoption. A strong outcome would help arrest the stock's slide and potentially trigger a revaluation. Any sign of slowing cloud momentum or unexpectedly high costs, however, could push the shares back toward the annual low — and test whether the settlement has truly removed one cloud only to reveal another.
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