SAP’s Quiet Period Ends With a Bang: Q2 Earnings to Judge Cloud Strategy Against a 31% Stock Drop
Published on 07/08/2026 at 15:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shareholders have seen little reason to cheer in 2026. With the stock down more than 31% since January and trading just above its year low, the software giant’s self-imposed communications blackout leaves investors guessing until the half-year numbers land on July 23. The only cushion in the meantime is a €2.6 billion buyback running through July of next year — a program that, thanks to the falling share price, is scooping up stock far cheaper than it could have a few months ago.
The latest leg lower was triggered by a familiar cocktail. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed the DAX below the 25,000-point mark, while a simultaneous wobble in high-flying AI names dragged down the entire technology sector. SAP’s shares slid 2.75% on Wednesday to €139.24, hitting an intraday loss of as much as 3.33%. The pattern has become almost routine: when the flashier AI plays stumble, traditional software and IT service stocks like SAP briefly catch a bid — but the relief rarely lasts. Monday’s 2.2% gain and Tuesday’s 1.58% rise were both erased by Wednesday’s selloff.
Inside the quiet period, management is barred from commenting on business trends. That leaves the stock at the mercy of sector sentiment and the company’s own cost-containment measures. Since early July, SAP has clamped down on non-essential business travel and put a freeze on hiring outside of artificial intelligence roles — a clear signal that the company is husbanding capital for its technology pivot. The €2.6 billion buyback, announced in a previous tranche, provides a steady but unspectacular floor.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The strategic moves have not stopped there. On July 6, SAP closed its acquisition of Dremio, the data-fabric specialist, well ahead of market expectations. The deal bolsters SAP’s offering in agentic AI, allowing customers to link data across disparate systems in real time. Yet investors have so far shrugged off the purchase; the stock remains within 6% of its June 25 low of €130.80.
All eyes are now on the July 23 earnings release, scheduled for 22:05. Analysts see second-quarter revenue of €9.85 billion, roughly 9% higher than a year earlier, and earnings per share of €1.76, up from €1.46. The two metrics the market will scrutinize most closely are the cloud backlog — a forward-looking gauge of subscription revenue — and the operating margin. The question is whether cost discipline can protect margins without choking off the growth needed to justify SAP’s cloud and AI ambitions.
Technically, the stock is deeply underwater. The 200-day moving average sits near €180, a level that now looks distant. The 50-day average of €146.01 is the first potential resistance if sentiment turns. A break below the €130.80 year low would open the door to fresh selling pressure, making the earnings verdict all the more pivotal.
If SAP can show that its austerity and the Dremio acquisition are starting to stabilize margins, the market may finally start to price in a recovery. If the numbers disappoint, the buyback alone may not be enough to keep the stock from testing new lows. The July 23 report is shaping up as the moment that separates the cloud story from the share-price reality.
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