SAP Shares Test Floor Ahead of Earnings as Geopolitical Jitters and Buyback Battle for Investor Attention
Published on 07/13/2026 at 16:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The days tick down to July 23, and SAP investors are bracing for a moment of truth. The software giant will release second-quarter and first-half 2026 results late that evening, and the stakes could hardly be higher: the stock is trading at 138.50 euros, a mere 5.89 percent above its 52-week low of 130.80 euros. Over the past twelve months, the shares have shed 46.34 percent of their value; since the start of the year, the decline stands at 31.44 percent.
That brutal selloff has been driven by a combination of company-specific transformation doubts and, more recently, a sudden flare-up in Middle East tensions. A short-lived ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed after reports of American strikes on Iranian targets, sending shockwaves through European technology stocks. SAP, as the continent’s most valuable tech name, bore the brunt of the risk-off shift. The stock ended the week down 1.52 percent and has fallen 2.13 percent over the past 30 days.
Technically, the picture remains fragile. The shares are trading 4.95 percent below their 50-day moving average of 145.72 euros and a wide 22.50 percent beneath the 200-day average of 178.23 euros. The relative strength index sits at 45.8, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions, while the annualized volatility of 38.49 percent underscores persistent nervousness. A break below 130.80 euros would confirm the downward trend that has been in place for months.
Yet the cloud story is not all gloom. SAP’s cloud revenue grew 27 percent year-on-year at constant currencies in the first quarter, and management reaffirmed its full-year cloud revenue guidance of 25.8 billion to 26.2 billion euros. The company is doubling down on artificial intelligence: the Joule copilot is being integrated deeper into enterprise software, and recent acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs aim to strengthen the data foundation for AI models. An internal customer survey indicated that over 96 percent of SAP clients have mandates to explore or implement AI technology.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Moreover, SAP is deploying a massive capital return program to counter the weakness. A buyback of up to 10 billion euros is authorized through the end of 2027, with a current tranche of up to 2.6 billion euros running until the end of this month. At the depressed share price, each euro spent buys back more stock than it did a year ago — a structural support that some market watchers see as a meaningful counterweight to the geopolitical and operational headwinds.
The bear case, however, is substantive. Some analysts worry that AI adoption among SAP’s customer base may prove slower than hoped, and competition from Amazon Web Services, Netlify, and Modal is intensifying. A disappointing cloud backlog forecast in January 2026 already rattled the stock, demonstrating how sensitive the market has become to any sign of deceleration in the cloud transition. On-premise customers face complex migrations, and the transformation carries execution risk that could weigh on the pace of growth.
On a more positive regulatory note, SAP recently avoided potential EU fines by making binding commitments to ease switching between on-premise ERP providers, a move that gives customers more flexibility and removes a legal overhang. But the bigger question remains the margin: can SAP deliver cloud growth without sacrificing profitability? The operating margin is one of two key metrics — along with the cloud order backlog — that investors will scrutinize on July 23.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
As the earnings date approaches, the share buyback remains the only lever fully under the company’s control. The next few weeks will test whether AI-driven momentum can rekindle confidence, or whether the combination of geopolitical risk and transformation friction will push the stock to new lows. The 130.80-euro floor looms large, and the July 23 report will either validate the strategic narrative or deepen the doubts.
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SAP Stock: New Analysis - 13 July
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