Semiconductor ETF Swings as ASML’s Optimism Gives Way to Broad Chip Rout
Published on 07/16/2026 at 16:57 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF ended Thursday down 2.88% at €94.07, erasing nearly all of the gains from the previous session when a bullish outlook from ASML had briefly lifted the fund back toward its 50-day moving average. The reversal underscores the deepening fault lines within the global chip sector, where record results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company proved powerless to halt a wave of profit-taking that originated in Asia.
Just a day earlier, the ETF had closed at €96.86 — a whisker below its 50-day average of €96.99 — after the US-listed SMH rose 1.2% on the back of a 3% rally in ASML. The Dutch lithography giant raised its annual revenue forecast for the second time this year, now expecting sales between €43 billion and €45 billion with gross margins of 54% to 56%, up from an earlier target of €36 billion to €40 billion and margins of 51% to 53%. Quarterly revenue came in at €9.3 billion, beating consensus by €500 million, while net profit of €2.9 billion exceeded expectations by €300 million.
That cheerful picture shattered on Thursday when selling pressure from South Korea and Japan spilled across global markets. Seoul’s Kospi index slumped as much as 7.6%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 shed 2.8%, and memory-chip heavyweights bore the brunt. SK Hynix plunged more than 11%, completely reversing the 8% rally from the prior session. Samsung Electronics fell over 8%. The rout dragged the ETF 6.49% lower over seven trading days and left it more than 15% below the all-time high of €111.18 set on June 30.
Analysts described the sell-off as a case of expectations outpacing fundamentals. Chip stocks now account for roughly 20% of the S&P 500 — compared with about 8% at the peak of the dot-com bubble and a historical average of 2% to 5%. While earnings momentum remains robust, the pace of price gains looks increasingly unsustainable as investors scrutinize valuations. A trader at XFUNDs noted that even strong quarterly reports are failing to spark fresh rallies.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
The weakness in memory chips is driven by a specific headwind: IDC is forecasting the largest drop in global smartphone demand on record for 2026, with volumes sliding 13% to the lowest level in a decade. That demand destruction is squeezing suppliers such as Micron Technology, which lost 8% on Thursday, and SanDisk, which cratered more than 11%. Producers have shifted capacity toward higher-margin data-center customers, exacerbating shortages of components for phones and PCs. Against this backdrop, ASML’s raised guidance stands out as a bright spot — the company’s advanced lithography tools remain in high demand as foundries race to build out capacity for AI chips.
TSMC, a top ETF holding, released its quarterly numbers on Thursday, posting record revenue and profit. Yet the strong figures failed to stem the sell-off, reflecting a market that is increasingly skeptical of the sector’s ability to sustain its breakneck rally. TSMC’s N3 capacity is already fully booked, but the broader market appears to be pricing in a cooling of the AI-driven boom.
The fund’s structure provides some cushion during downturns. The underlying index tracks the top 25% of US-listed semiconductor stocks, with no single holding exceeding a 10% weighting. Nvidia’s position is capped and rebalanced quarterly — a feature that proved helpful in the first half when Nvidia underperformed the broader index. Companies must generate at least half their revenue from semiconductors or related equipment, which excludes Apple despite its in-house chip designs.
Technical indicators paint a picture of a sector digesting a sharp correction. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 60.44% (per the primary article) or 64.31% (per the secondary article), reflecting elevated nervousness — both figures are cited across sources, with the exact number depending on the observation date. The relative strength index sits in neutral territory near 44 to 47, while the fund trades 3.23% below its 50-day moving average but remains 38.63% above its 200-day average, underscoring the durability of the long-term uptrend. Since the start of the year, the ETF has gained 76.24%, and over the past twelve months it has returned 132.56%.
Geopolitical jitters are adding to the uncertainty. Oil prices, after dipping slightly following further US strikes on Iran, remain elevated on the week, raising the risk of a renewed inflationary impulse that could complicate central bank policy. Whether the relief rally from ASML returns or the broader sell-off deepens will depend on how the market interprets the next wave of chip earnings — and whether current valuations leave enough room for error.
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