Siemens Energy: A €150 Test Looms as Policy Gains Fail to Stem a Steep Weekly Decline

The stock closed Friday at €152.00, delivering a weekly loss of 8.3% — with some calculations putting the drop as high as 9.46% — as investors shrugged off a major German policy initiative for new gas plants and a credit-rating upgrade to lock in profits. The retreat has brought the psychologically important €150 level into sharp focus ahead of the next trading week.

Berlin's newly minted Gaskraftwerkgesetz approved 11 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity, all of which must be hydrogen-ready by 2045. For Siemens Energy, the world's leading supplier of gas turbines, the legislation opens a clear pipeline in its home market. The company had already raised its annual demand outlook to 110–120 gigawatts and noted it is earning premiums on expedited deliveries for hyperscaler and data-centre projects. Yet the positive news had largely been priced in, triggering a textbook "sell on good news" reaction that sent shares sliding.

Compounding the profit-taking, Barclays downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight, warning that free cash flow may have peaked as early as 2026. The bank nevertheless lifted its price target from €110 to €130, acknowledging the improved near-term picture. That target sits well below the current price and contrasts sharply with other houses: JPMorgan has a €235 target, while Bank of America sets it at €260, creating an unusually wide spread on the Street.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?

In a countervailing signal, S&P Global Ratings raised Siemens Energy's long-term credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook. The agency cited rising profitability, stronger cash generation, and a turnaround at the wind-power subsidiary Siemens Gamesa, which is expected to break even in 2026 and post positive EBITDA margins from 2027. The company's order backlog now exceeds €150 billion, providing a thick cushion of revenue visibility.

Technically, the stock is now testing the €150 floor — a breakdown would expose the 200-day moving average at €142.72. The 50-day average at €165.46 sits more than 8% above the current price, while the relative strength index at 42.6 leaves room for further erosion before hitting oversold territory. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at roughly 60%, underscoring the high-octane nature of the name. From its April 24 record of €195.54, the stock has shed more than 22%.

Despite the weekly setback, Siemens Energy remains one of the Dax's standout performers, up 23.78% year to date and 65.11% over the past twelve months. The buyback programme continues to run, with a €1 billion tranche active through September 2026 as part of a broader €6 billion repurchase plan. After a €0.70 dividend paid in March, speculation is building that management may lift the payout significantly on the back of strong cash-flow projections.

All eyes now turn to the third-quarter results due on 5 August, when investors will scrutinise order intake and margins in the gas-turbine business. Until then, the €150 level is likely to be the battleground between dip-buyers betting on the policy tailwind and sellers who see a rich valuation after a rally that has nearly doubled the stock from its 52-week low of €84.62 last September.

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