Siemens Energy: Geopolitical Jitters and Analyst Doubts Cloud a €154bn Order Book
Published on 07/14/2026 at 09:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A record €154bn order backlog would normally be a cause for celebration, but for Siemens Energy, it has become a double-edged sword. While the sheer size underscores the company’s embedded role in energy infrastructure, a growing chorus of bearish analyst voices and fresh turmoil in the Middle East have pushed the stock to the back foot. The shares closed Monday at €148.72, shedding 5.87% over the past week and 3.69% over the last month, despite still holding a year-to-date gain of 21.11% and a 12-month advance of 61.55%.
The latest blow came from Barclays, which downgraded Siemens Energy to “Underweight” on 13 July. Analyst Vlad Sergievskii warned that the core business may be approaching a cyclical peak and set a price target of €130 – a level that places him at the most pessimistic end of the Street. That contrasts sharply with bullish calls from Jefferies (Buy, €215) and RBC (Outperform, €210). The analyst consensus stands at €190.30, but the spread between the highest and lowest price targets has ballooned to a staggering €260 vs. €130, reflecting deep uncertainty about future earnings momentum.
Geopolitical tensions added a further layer of pressure over the weekend. After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the United States launched attacks on more than 140 targets inside the country, prompting retaliatory rocket strikes on US bases. The escalation hit energy stocks broadly and, combined with Germany’s gas storage sitting at just 43.9% capacity – its lowest level in 15 years – has raised fresh fears about winter supply. Industry group INES warned that a cold snap could trigger a gas shortage as early as late January, keeping the spotlight on energy security but doing little to calm Siemens Energy’s share price.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?
Operationally, the company continues to rack up wins. Together with Neptun Smulders, Siemens Energy secured the contract for the North Sea Connector 2 offshore grid connection from transmission operator 50Hertz. The project involves building converter stations – one onshore near Schwerin and another around 200 kilometres west of Sylt in the North Sea – with commissioning slated for the end of 2034. The order is expected to create more than 500 jobs in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Yet the long lead time underscores the criticism from bears that a bulging order book does not automatically translate into near-term margin expansion – a point also made in comparisons to Rheinmetall, where high backlogs have not always delivered commensurate profit growth.
Chart-based measures highlight the stock’s fragile state. The shares now trade nearly 10% below the 50-day moving average of €164.89 and also sit under the 100-day average of €162.85, though they remain 4.06% above the 200-day average of €142.92. The 14-day RSI of 40.5 signals weakness without being oversold, while annualised 30-day volatility of roughly 60% underlines the nervousness. From its 52-week high of €195.54, reached on 24 April 2026, the stock has retreated almost 24%; conversely, it still trades more than 75% above the September 2025 low of €84.62.
Investors also had to digest the news that asset manager Amundi trimmed its stake in Siemens Energy, adding to the sense of caution. The ADR-listed shares (WKN A420WD) mirrored the Frankfurt weakness, dropping 2.75% to $35.64 on 10 July, with a weekly loss of 8.52% but a still-impressive 64.80% annual gain.
For now, Siemens Energy finds itself caught between two conflicting narratives: one that points to a multi-year infrastructure boom and a record order book, and another that warns of a peak in the cycle, margin pressure, and external shocks. The next scheduled quarterly report on 5 August 2026 may provide some clarity – until then, the volatility looks set to persist.
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