Silver Breaks $62 Barrier as Jobs Data Misfire Fuels Dovish Shift and Supply Deficit Widens
Published on 07/04/2026 at 09:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Silver remains 48.5% below its all-time high of $121.78 per ounce reached in January, but Friday’s session delivered a forceful rebound that pushed the metal back above $62. The close at $62.72 represented a 2.06% gain on the day and a weekly advance of 5.09%, offering a welcome respite from a punishing June. Over the past 30 days, however, silver still sits 14.06% lower, and year-to?date losses stand at 13.21%.
The catalyst came on Thursday when the US government published June non?farm payrolls of just 57,000, far below the 110,000 economists had penciled in. May’s figure was also revised down to 129,000 from the initially reported 139,000. The miss was compounded by an ADP private?sector reading of only 98,000 new jobs (consensus 113,000) and an ISM Manufacturing PMI of 53.3, slightly under the 54.0 forecast. The data weakened the case for a near?term rate hike, with futures pricing a lower probability of a September move. Because silver yields no interest, a looser monetary stance is a direct tailwind.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the dovish tilt during the EZB forum in Sintra, striking a cautious note on inflation risks. The dollar index slipped below 100 on the comments, removing another headwind for precious metals. Lower oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns about the Strait of Hormuz also lent support. Silver had already risen for three consecutive sessions, trading near $60.20 in Asian hours before the official payrolls were released.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
Underpinning the long?term picture is a persistent supply deficit. Reuters projects a 46.3?million?ounce shortfall for 2026, up from 40.3 million last year and marking the sixth consecutive year of a structural gap. That scarcity provides a floor even as short?term demand fluctuates, although analysts caution that a strengthening dollar or prolonged high rate expectations could weigh on the zero?yielding metal.
The technical backdrop remains fragile. Silver is trading roughly 12% below its 50?day moving average of $71.67 and 14% below the 200?day average of $73.04. The relative strength index sits at 43.5, a neutral reading that suggests no overbought or oversold conditions. A sustained close above $61.58 could open the path to the next resistance at $65.73, while key supports lie at $57.74 and $55.48.
Looking ahead, the second?quarter earnings season starts Monday and will test the resilience of the global economy. The Fed and the European Central Bank will release their meeting minutes, and the IMF will update its World Economic Outlook. The Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for July 29, and with the dot plot having hinted at a possible hike in prior guidance, every upcoming data print will recalibrate expectations. For silver, the sensitivity to US economic surprises is unlikely to fade anytime soon.
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