Silver on Track for Worst Quarter Since 2022 as Fed Rate Outlook and Iran Oil Thaw Overwhelm Supply Deficit
Published on 06/24/2026 at 17:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The white metal is staring down its steepest quarterly decline in more than three years, with prices plumbing a six-month low of $61.15 an ounce. Tuesday’s brutal 5% rout—the latest leg in a sustained selloff—has wiped out nearly half the value from the record peak of $117, leaving traders to focus on the $60 threshold as the next psychological bulwark.
Two powerful macro headwinds are driving the slide. On the monetary policy front, Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has doubled down on price stability, fueling expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Bank of America now pencils in three rate hikes for 2026, with core inflation stubbornly stuck at around 3.5%. The resulting surge in the US Dollar Index to a 13-month high makes dollar-denominated silver more expensive for overseas buyers, while rising Treasury yields sap the appeal of zero-yield bullion.
Compounding the pressure is an abrupt geopolitical thaw in the Middle East. Reports of progress in US-Iran peace talks have seen the Strait of Hormuz partially reopen, and Washington has granted a 60-day permit for Iranian crude exports. Brent crude has slipped below $77 a barrel, extinguishing the narrative that energy-driven inflation would bolster silver’s safe-haven bid. With the risk premium evaporating, speculative buyers are stepping to the sidelines.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
From a technical perspective, the damage is already done. The $65 support level has given way, and Wednesday’s intraday low of $60.74 puts the $60 mark firmly in crosshairs. A break below that could open the door to $58.50, traders caution. The gold-silver ratio, hovering at 66.58, has widened only slightly from the prior day’s 66.74, underscoring silver’s greater sensitivity to the economic cycle.
Yet the fundamental picture tells a different story. Demand from photovoltaic manufacturing and AI hardware infrastructure remains robust, and the physical market is still grappling with a structural supply deficit. For now, though, those tailwinds are drowned out by a risk-off mood that has also dragged down tech stocks and cyclical commodities. All eyes now turn to Thursday’s PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred gauge. A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce rate-hike bets and likely drive silver toward that $60 floor; cooler data could spark a relief rally, but reversing the quarterly trend will require more than one data point.
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