Silver’s Comeback: Weak Jobs Data Reshapes Fed Bets as Physical Market Squeeze Intensifies
Published on 07/05/2026 at 14:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A shockingly weak US jobs report has handed silver an unexpected lifeline, with the metal vaulting above $62 as investors rapidly recalibrate Federal Reserve expectations. But beneath the macro-driven rally lies a physical market that is showing unmistakable signs of strain — a combination that may prove potent for prices if the trend holds.
The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, a dramatic miss against the roughly 110,000 forecasters had penciled in. To make matters worse, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 74,000 positions, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The data painted a picture of a cooling labor market that has upended the narrative of further rate increases from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Markets reacted swiftly. The probability of a September rate hike tumbled from 66% to the 53-54% range, according to traders. The dollar index slumped to around 100.8, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note held steady at 4.5%. With silver priced in dollars and offering no yield, a softer greenback and lower rate expectations provide a direct tailwind. The metal gained 5% on the week to settle at $62.72 per ounce, offering a reprieve from what had been a punishing year — it is still down 13.21% since January and almost 49% below its 52-week high of $121.78 hit back in January.
Supply Deficit Deepens as Stress Signals Flash
While the macro picture drove Friday’s jump, the fundamental backdrop has been tightening for years. The global silver market is on course for its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with analysts predicting a shortfall of some 46.3 million ounces in 2026. To bridge that gap, existing inventories are being consumed, and the pressure is becoming visible at the COMEX.
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The coverage ratio for registered silver — a measure of available inventory against open interest — has fallen to 13.4%, slipping below the critical 15% threshold that traders watch closely. So far this year, roughly 120 million ounces have flowed out of COMEX vaults. Meanwhile, large institutional investors are piling in. The iShares Silver Trust boosted its holdings by 36.5 tonnes between June 30 and July 2, bringing total storage to 14,940 tonnes.
Industrial demand continues to be a key driver. Silver’s superior electrical conductivity makes it indispensable for solar panels, electric vehicles, and — increasingly — the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence. These structural demand trends are keeping the physical market tight even as paper prices gyrate.
Analysts See Upside, but Technical Hurdles Remain
Despite the upbeat sentiment from the jobs data, the charts tell a more cautious story. Silver remains well below its key moving averages — nearly 12.5% under the 50-day at $71.67 and about 14% below the 200-day at $73.04. The Relative Strength Index stands at 43.5, still in neutral-bearish territory. At 50.38% annualized volatility, the metal remains a rough ride.
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Nevertheless, the response from major institutions has been notably bullish. JP Morgan forecasts an average price of $81 for the year, while Commerzbank sees potential for a move to $90 if the rate-cutting cycle materializes. For now, the $60 level has been established as a critical support. A sustained hold above that mark could signal that the recent correction has run its course, according to some analysts.
Resistance lies at $63.50 and then near the psychologically important $70 zone. The next catalysts arrive on the calendar soon: the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and US consumer price index data is due later in the week. Any dovish signals from either could provide the next leg up — but failure to break through the current range might leave silver trapped between a tight physical market and a still-cautious chart.
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