Silver Speculators Hold Their Ground as Macro Headwinds Trigger a 10% Weekly Rout

The white metal suffered its steepest single-day slide in months on Friday, shedding 8.3 percent to close at $67.96 per ounce — a level not seen since late March. The weekly loss stretched beyond 10 percent, erasing months of gains in a matter of days. Yet beneath the surface of this brutal sell-off, a curious pattern has emerged in the futures market: speculative traders are refusing to flee.

Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released alongside Friday's price collapse, reveal that managed-money accounts actually eked out a marginal increase in their net-long position to 10,444 contracts. Longs rose by 377 contracts while shorts shrank by 12. That is hardly a vote of confidence, but it signals that the speculative crowd has not staged an outright exit despite the volatility. The real defensive shift is happening elsewhere: swap dealers, the intermediaries who hedge commercial risk, boosted their short position by 3,701 contracts to 45,608 — a clear sign they are bracing for further downside. Producers and merchants, meanwhile, trimmed their shorts by 824 contracts, suggesting some commercial players see value at these levels.

The macro trigger for Friday's carnage was unambiguous. US employment data for May smashed expectations, extinguishing hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve under its new chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are now pricing a "higher for longer" scenario that punishes non-yielding assets like silver. The metal has tumbled 44 percent from its all-time high of $121.78 set in January 2026. Compounding the pain, a stronger dollar and rising real yields make the commodity more expensive for overseas buyers, while geopolitical tensions — including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Middle East — have pushed energy prices and inflation expectations higher, further narrowing the Federal Reserve's room to ease.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Against this macro storm, the physical market tells a different story. The Silver Institute's 2026 survey forecasts a sixth consecutive year of deficit, with supply falling short of demand by 46.3 million ounces. But the composition of demand is shifting. Industrial offtake is projected to drop 3 percent to 639.6 million ounces, with the solar sector alone consuming 19 percent less silver. Investment demand, however, is picking up the slack: coin and bar buying is expected to surge 18 percent, while silver ETFs are forecast to absorb a moderate 30 million ounces. That tension between a structurally undersupplied market and a macro-driven sell-off is what defines the current landscape.

With the speculative camp still net long and the professional hedgers positioning for more weakness, all eyes now turn to Wednesday's US consumer price index for May, due at 8:30 am ET. Silver reacts acutely to shifts in rate expectations and the dollar, and the CPI print will either confirm the hawkish repricing triggered by the jobs report or offer a counter-narrative. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, with fresh projections expected, and the Fed's own policy decision follows on June 16-17.

Chart technicians have their work cut out. Friday's range provides the immediate guide rails: the session low at $67.53 is the near-term floor, while the high at $73.83 marks the first overhead resistance. The relative strength index sits at 35.3, deep in oversold territory, and the price is well below its 50-day moving average of $76.37. That oversold condition may offer a technical bounce, but a sustained recovery likely requires a catalyst — and the CPI data are the most obvious candidate. A stabilization above $72 would be the minimum signal for a relief rally targeting the $80 area, while a clean break below $67 could open the door to deeper correction targets. For now, the market tests $67.50, and the next move depends entirely on what Wednesday's inflation numbers deliver.

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