SK Hynix Races to Fix HBM4 Cooling Flaw as Samsung Presses Its Advantage
Published on 07/18/2026 at 08:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A technical hiccup in the next generation of high-bandwidth memory has thrown SK Hynix’s dominance in the AI chip market into question, triggering a sharp sell-off that erased more than a quarter of the stock’s value in a single month. The South Korean memory giant lost 11.53 percent on Friday alone, closing at 1,842,000 won in Seoul, and has now retreated 26.93 percent over the past 30 sessions. The rout, however, comes against a backdrop of extraordinary gains: shares are still up 183.52 percent year-to-date and have more than quadrupled from their October 2025 low.
At the heart of the turbulence is a cooling redesign for the HBM4 chips destined for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin platform. Reports indicate that a liquid metal cooling design required a re-engineering of the base die, pushing delivery back by roughly three months. Market researcher TrendForce responded by slashing its forecast for SK Hynix’s share of Rubin-related HBM supply in 2026 from 29 percent to 22 percent. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has seized the moment: it claims to have passed HBM4 validation as the first supplier and has been shipping the chips commercially since February. TrendForce now expects Samsung’s slice of the HBM market to climb from 20 percent to over 28 percent next year.
The fallout spread well beyond SK Hynix. SanDisk and Western Digital each lost more than 20 percent on Friday following the downbeat HBM outlook. In Tokyo, Kioxia tumbled 16.10 percent and now sits 52 percent below its June 22 record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slid 5.7 percent in a single day and has officially entered a technical bear market, sitting 20 percent below its late June peak. SK Hynix’s American depositary receipts, listed on Nasdaq since July 10, fell 13.69 percent on July 16 to $152.31 — just $3.31 above their IPO price of $149. The premium that the ADR had commanded over the Seoul-listed shares, which reached as high as 50 percent, has evaporated in a matter of days.
Despite the carnage, analysts remain largely bullish. Barclays initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $330 target. HSBC reiterated SK Hynix as its top pick in the sector, and the consensus on Wall Street remains a Strong Buy with an average price target of $330. In Seoul, KB Securities raised its target to 4.2 million won from 3.8 million won on July 2. The bull case rests on persistent HBM supply tightness and long-term contracts that extend through 2026. SK Hynix has already sent samples of its 12-layer HBM4E to key customers and, in June, struck a technology partnership with Nvidia to align future memory designs with the U.S. chip giant’s AI infrastructure roadmap.
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Yet the bear case is growing louder. Samsung’s HBM4 mass production is already underway, and the company expects its HBM revenues to more than triple in 2026. The threat is no longer theoretical — it is happening in real time. An additional headwind comes from a shift in manufacturing economics: since early 2026, DDR5 chips have yielded higher profit per wafer than HBM, tempting producers to reallocate capacity away from the very product that has driven the memory supercycle. China’s CXMT is also expanding its DRAM footprint, adding another layer of competitive pressure.
Investors received an earlier warning on June 23, when SK Hynix shares dropped 12.5 percent on reports that Nvidia might cut Rubin production and that SK Hynix could slow its HBM4 capacity expansion. That prelude has now been followed by a second, more substantial wave of selling fueled by the confirmed delay and Samsung’s aggressive push.
Inside the company, tensions are simmering on multiple fronts. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won has publicly urged long-term holding of the stock, arguing that structural AI-driven memory demand will prevail. He has also suggested that Korea should focus on niche markets and AI service exports rather than head-to-head competition with the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, a proposal to pay a portion of 2026 bonuses — estimated at 770 million won per employee and linked to 10 percent of operating profit — in shares rather than cash has drawn opposition from worker representatives, who cite tax disadvantages and conversion issues. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has waded into the debate, praising the industry’s generous bonus culture and urging companies to reward staff as richly as possible.
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Washington is also circling. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer told South Korea’s Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo that American companies deserve a share of the record profits generated by SK Hynix and Samsung, arguing that U.S. demand is what fuels those earnings. No formal demand has been made, and Seoul’s response has been cautious.
All eyes now turn to July 29, when SK Hynix reports second-quarter results. The consensus calls for revenue of roughly 82 trillion won and operating profit of 63 trillion won, implying a margin near 76 percent. Korea Investment & Securities is slightly more conservative at 80.9 trillion won in revenue and 60.4 trillion won in operating profit — a 74.6 percent margin, tempered by slower price growth from long-term HBM supply contracts. The numbers will either validate the current sell-off as overdone or confirm that the competitive landscape has shifted more decisively than bulls anticipated.
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