SK Hynix Races to Keep Its HBM Crown as a Samsung Walkout and a $20 Billion Fab Gamble Collide

SK Hynix is living a paradox. Its entire HBM output through the end of 2026 is spoken for, yet it is spending more than 20 trillion Won on a new factory that won't ship product until November. The stock has more than doubled this year, closing at 1,745,000 Won, just 11% below its all-time high. And now two forces are pulling in opposite directions: a Samsung labour strike that tightens supply, and a Samsung qualification win that threatens to loosen it.

The National Samsung Electronics Union has called an 18-day general strike starting Thursday, after management rejected a last-minute mediation proposal. With Samsung partially sidelined, pressure on the global AI memory supply chain ratchets up — a structural gift for SK Hynix, which already commands roughly 70% of Nvidia's HBM orders for the upcoming "Vera Rubin" platform. That share is far above the 50% the market had previously expected.

Yet Samsung is not standing still. The company recently passed final HBM4 quality tests at both Nvidia and AMD, and full-volume supply could begin as early as June. Samsung's yield remains below 60%, versus SK Hynix's 80% using its 1c-DRAM technology, but the qualification for Vera Rubin is a foot in the door. If Samsung manages to ramp mass production in the second half of 2026, SK Hynix's market share could slip to between 50% and 60% — a call that likely won't be settled until the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, SK Hynix is pushing ahead with its own capacity expansion. The first clean room at the new M15X fab will start operations in May 2026, with mass production expected roughly six months later in November. The facility, which has absorbed more than 20 trillion Won in investment, will manufacture HBM3E, HBM4, and eventually HBM4E. The bet is that global demand will continue to outrun supply for years. Goldman Sachs recently widened its forecast for the 2026 DRAM supply gap to 4.9% — the tightest in 15 years. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won has predicted chip shortages lasting until at least 2030.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?

The financial results underscore why SK Hynix can justify the spending spree. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue hit 52.58 trillion Won, a 198% jump year-over-year. Operating margin reached 72% — higher than Nvidia's own 65% and a new industry record. DRAM, NAND, and HBM are all completely sold out. The company's market capitalisation stood at roughly 948 billion dollars in mid-May, inching toward the trillion-dollar milestone that would make South Korea the first country outside the US to host a company of that size.

That kind of performance has attracted a flood of retail money. South Korea's total stock margin loans hit a record 36.47 trillion Won in mid-May, a 140% surge since the start of 2025. Some investors are leveraging their positions with up to 150% debt, and nearly a third of all domestic ETFs now carry meaningful SK Hynix stakes. The concentration has supercharged volatility: the annualised 30-day figure sits at almost 79%.

Analyst views are split on whether the stock still has room to run. UBS raised its target to 1.7 million Won in May and bumped its 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by 22% and 29%, respectively, calling the current cycle a memory supercycle not seen in nearly 30 years. SK Securities goes further, setting a target of 3 million Won — more than 50% above the current price — arguing that a forward P/E of roughly 5.2 is too low for a company of this calibre. From the all-time high of 1.976 million Won, the stock needs to climb about 11% to reclaim that peak.

SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The next catalyst will be clarity on the Samsung strike's duration and whether it actually crimps output. If Samsung's production falters, SK Hynix remains the only credible supplier, reinforcing its pricing power. If Samsung delivers on schedule in the autumn, the margin and market share story gets a lot more complicated. For now, SK Hynix is riding a wave that few memory makers have ever seen — and spending billions to make sure it doesn't wipe out when the tide turns.

Ad

SK Hynix Stock: New Analysis - 20 May

Fresh SK Hynix information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated SK Hynix analysis...

en | KR7000660001 | HYNIX | boerse | 69381427 |