SK Hynix’s $29 Billion Nasdaq Gamble Faces a Storm of AI Doubts and Samsung’s HBM4 Threat
Published on 07/03/2026 at 14:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Just days after one of the steepest single-session drops in its recent history, SK Hynix shares roared back almost 11 percent on Friday, closing at 2,425,000 won. The whipsaw – a 14.6 percent plunge on Thursday followed by a strong rebound – underscores how skittish the market has become as the memory giant races toward its landmark Nasdaq listing on July 10. The stock still sits 18.81 percent below its 52-week high of 2,987,000 won, hit on June 25, and the annualized 30-day volatility has soared to 114.23 percent.
The run-up to the US dual listing has been anything but smooth. In late June, SK Hynix shed roughly 12 percent in a single session after reports surfaced that partner Nvidia might slow production of its upcoming Rubin chips and that SK Hynix itself was moderating its HBM4 capacity expansion. Then, on Thursday, a fresh wave of selling hit on fears that Meta Platforms could pare back its AI infrastructure spending. The market’s hair-trigger reaction to any whisper of demand softening is the biggest cloud over what would be the largest American Depositary Receipt offering in history – a $29.4 billion (45.45 trillion won) issuance led by Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
Behind the daily drama lies a more fundamental question: can SK Hynix preserve its commanding 58 percent share of the high-bandwidth memory market as the next-generation HBM4 moves into mass production in the second half of 2026? The company has already filed registration documents for the Nasdaq debut, with bookbuilding slated to begin July 6 and the final ADS price to be set on July 9. The proceeds are earmarked for an expansion that is already under way, including the new Fab M15X in Cheongju, which will start production in the second half of 2026.
The bull case rests on several pillars. SK Hynix has reportedly removed price caps from its long-term supply contracts, betting that it can capture the full benefit of rising spot prices during the current tightness. A multi-year partnership with Nvidia, signed in June 2026, locks the company in as a co-developer for the “Vera Rubin” architecture. Analyst expectations for the second-quarter operating profit range from 62 trillion to 68 trillion won, and Morgan Stanley forecasts that average DRAM prices will climb 62 percent in 2026, with NAND up 75 percent. Demand from Chinese hyperscalers for Nvidia’s H200 chips is also keeping pressure off older HBM3E pricing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Yet the bear narrative is equally forceful. Samsung Electronics, which started mass production of HBM4 in February and already supplies Nvidia, is closing the gap. Reports that Samsung’s HBM4E tests have achieved reliability rates above 70 percent raise the possibility that SK Hynix’s yield advantage – long its competitive moat – may shrink just as the capital-intensive expansion peaks. The two companies also have a joint investment agreement worth 870 billion dollars that could pressure margins. And the stock’s current valuation of 1,032.35 billion euros is hard to justify if HBM4 pricing softens amid a broader cooling of AI capital expenditure.
Technical indicators offer little clarity. The relative strength index stands at 51.6, neither overbought nor oversold, and while the stock trades 18.51 percent above its 50-day moving average, the distance to that average is narrow enough to be vulnerable to a retest if sentiment sours. The market is bracing for a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern around the listing, especially given that the Nasdaq debut will expose SK Hynix to direct valuation comparisons with US rival Micron.
Two specific events will shape the next leg. First, the Nasdaq trading start on July 10, which, if well received by institutional investors during the bookbuilding phase, could help erode the so-called “Korea discount” and give the stock a lasting lift. Second, Samsung’s memory update at the end of July, which will reveal the qualification status of its HBM4 at Nvidia. Every quarter that Samsung fails to secure that qualification buys SK Hynix more time to cement its lead.
SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the tension between a structural memory shortage and episodic demand jitters keeps the stock in a volatile no-man’s-land. The HBM4 qualification samples due in the second half of 2026 will ultimately determine whether SK Hynix can hold onto its 393.39 percent gain from the 52-week low – or whether the Nasdaq debut becomes the peak of the cycle rather than the start of a new chapter.
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