SK Hynix’s 41% Plunge From Peak Puts All Eyes on July 29 Earnings
Published on 07/25/2026 at 20:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are stark. SK Hynix shares closed at 1,759,000 won on Friday, shedding 8.34% in a single session. Over the past month, the stock has lost nearly a third of its value. From the 52-week high set in late June, the decline now exceeds 41%.
Yet the company’s year-to-date performance still shows a gain of 170.74%. That paradox captures the tension gripping one of the world’s most important semiconductor stocks.
A Perfect Storm of Headwinds
Friday’s sell-off was triggered by a cascade of negative signals. A sharp overnight drop in the KOSPI index, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, spilled over into US memory-chip stocks. Micron fell 6%, while a specialized DRAM ETF slid 7%. The Nasdaq had already declined for three consecutive sessions, weighed down by disappointing results from Alphabet and Tesla, alongside growing unease over US-Iran tensions.
The broader tech rout reflects mounting skepticism about the massive capital expenditures flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investors are increasingly questioning when those billions will translate into returns. SK Hynix, as Nvidia’s primary supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, is directly exposed to that narrative shift.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
China’s $8.6 Billion IPO Adds Fuel to the Fire
A separate catalyst amplified the selling pressure. Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT announced plans for an $8.6 billion initial public offering in Beijing, reigniting fears of a global DRAM oversupply. The prospect of a well-capitalized new entrant rattled established players: Micron lost 5%, while SK Hynix and SanDisk each fell 7%.
The concern is existential for SK Hynix. According to Counterpoint Research, the company commands 29% of the DRAM market and a dominant 58% share of the HBM segment. A deep-pocketed Chinese rival threatens both franchises directly.
Some industry voices caution that the anxiety remains a sentiment-driven phenomenon for now. Concrete evidence of market-share erosion has yet to materialize, and analysts still expect global memory-chip shortages to persist beyond 2030.
Technical Picture Suggests More Pain Ahead
The stock now trades nearly 20% below its 50-day moving average, a clear break of the short-term uptrend. The relative strength index sits at 40.1, approaching oversold territory but not yet at the classic reversal threshold. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at 118.27%, signaling that wild swings are likely to continue.
The July 29 Earnings Reckoning
All attention now shifts to Wednesday, July 29, when SK Hynix reports second-quarter results. Analysts expect record revenue and profit, driven by the ongoing super-cycle in AI memory chips. Consensus estimates point to revenue growth of more than 250% year-over-year, fueled by aggressive DRAM price increases.
Korea Investment & Securities has tempered expectations, forecasting operating profit of approximately 60.4 trillion won for the quarter. That would represent a 556% jump from a year earlier but fall about 8% short of the market consensus of 65 trillion won.
SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The discrepancy stems from SK Hynix’s business model. The company derives a higher proportion of revenue from HBM than its competitors, and those contracts are typically long-term with limited pricing flexibility. As a result, SK Hynix’s price increases lag behind the market average.
What the Market Really Wants to Hear
The headline numbers alone may not be enough to reverse the stock’s trajectory. Investors will scrutinize management’s outlook on HBM4 production yields and demand stability from key customers including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. Confirmed long-term supply agreements or direct investments from these tech giants into SK Hynix’s production lines could provide the catalyst the stock needs.
Conversely, any signal of cooling HBM growth would likely extend the correction into the third quarter. The July 29 report thus represents a genuine inflection point — the first real test of whether the AI memory boom remains intact or has begun to fade.
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