SoftBank’s Record Rally: How AI Infrastructure and a Shrinking NAV Discount Sent Shares Surging

The massive gap between SoftBank’s stock price and the value of its sprawling portfolio has closed sharply, a shift that lies at the heart of the conglomerate’s latest breakout. The discount to net asset value (NAV) has collapsed from 50% to just 17%, as investors reassess the Japanese tech holding company through the lens of artificial intelligence. The NAV itself hit a record 47.7 trillion yen, underscoring the sheer scale of the bets now coming into focus.

On Monday, SoftBank shares stormed to an all-time high of 7,070 yen, a 4.6% daily surge that pushed the company’s total market capitalisation past 40 trillion yen (roughly $252 billion). For a brief moment, the technology investor was worth more than Toyota—a feat not seen since the dot-com era. The stock has vaulted 61% since the start of the year, with a staggering 40% of those gains packed into the last three trading days alone.

OpenAI remains the biggest catalyst. SoftBank holds around 13% of the ChatGPT developer, an investment that has cost it nearly $65 billion since September 2024. With OpenAI privately valued at $852 billion, the prospect of an initial public offering—potentially as early as September this year—has ignited euphoria. A successful listing would give SoftBank a liquid stake worth tens of billions more than its carrying cost.

But the rally isn’t a one-story affair. Arm Holdings, the chip designer in which SoftBank owns a controlling stake, has climbed 30% since 20 May, propelled by blockbuster results from Nvidia. Arm contributes roughly 40% of SoftBank’s NAV, and the rising tide in semiconductor demand is directly inflating the parent’s valuation. Meanwhile, SB Energy Corp., SoftBank’s US renewables subsidiary, is preparing its own IPO, with an 18-billion-dollar project pipeline and 5 gigawatts of operational energy assets.

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SoftBank is also doubling down on its own AI infrastructure. In October 2026, the group plans to launch an “AI Data Center GPU Cloud” service, powered by Nvidia’s Blackwell-generation chips and a proprietary platform called Infrinia AI Cloud OS. The old Sharp Sakai plant in Osaka will be converted into a specialised AI data centre, part of a broader neocloud strategy to control more of the value chain.

Amid the euphoria, the company is tapping the Japanese retail bond market for fresh capital. SoftBank has filed to issue 260 billion yen (around $1.6 billion) in subordinated hybrid notes with a 35-year maturity and a coupon expected to land between 4.8% and 5.6%. The bonds are callable from June 2031 and will be used to refinance existing dollar-denominated hybrid notes due in July 2027. This follows a 418 billion yen offering in April that carried a 4.97% coupon.

Operationally, SoftBank just posted a record annual profit before special items and taxes of more than 5 trillion yen, underscoring how its portfolio companies and the broader market recovery are feeding through to the bottom line.

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Yet the debt load remains a persistent weight. The group carries roughly 16 trillion yen in interest-bearing liabilities, and a $40 billion bridge loan comes due in March 2027. The decision to issue new hybrid notes—even at a time when equity is flying—signals that SoftBank still relies on cheap, long-dated funding to keep its machine running. For now, the AI narrative is strong enough to offset those concerns, but the test will come if OpenAI’s IPO stumbles or the data centre buildout slips past its October 2026 deadline.

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