Sovereign Buyers Gobble Up Gold at Record Pace as Price Swings on Fed Hopes and Hormuz Calm
Published on 07/06/2026 at 16:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold’s structural demand story is being written not by speculative traders but by central banks, with Poland emerging as the year’s most aggressive hoarder. Since January, Warsaw has added 64 tonnes to its reserves, making it the largest buyer among a group that includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, China and the Czech Republic. The World Gold Council’s latest data, covering May, shows Uzbekistan alone snapping up 9 tonnes for the month, pushing its gold allocation to roughly 87% of total reserves. Kazakhstan added 7 tonnes in May, bringing its year-to-date haul to 20 tonnes and its stockpile to 361 tonnes — equivalent to 78% of the country’s reserves. Even smaller players are joining the trend: the Czech central bank bought 2 tonnes in May, extending a long-running acquisition streak.
Against this backdrop of sustained official buying, the spot market has been anything but stable. Gold spent the past week on a rollercoaster, opening near $4,080 before sliding under $4,000 in the first two sessions. A stable ISM manufacturing reading had fuelled fears that the Federal Reserve would keep rates high for longer, dragging the metal to a weekly low of $3,942. But the picture reversed by Friday, as a disappointing US jobs report and easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz sent the XAU/USD pair rocketing to a close of $4,187.30 — a 3.87% gain for the week. That rally extended into the new week, with gold briefly topping $4,200 before pulling back to $4,151.50, still up 2.98% on a seven-day view.
The dual drivers behind the rebound are well telegraphed. Weak US labour data dampened expectations of further rate increases, reinforced by dovish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile, a calmer tone in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints of recent months, reduced the risk premium that had been baked into safe-haven assets. The dollar index closed the week at 100.83, down 0.52%, making gold cheaper for buyers outside the US and giving prices an extra boost.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Technically, the metal is still nursing deep wounds from its early-year peak. The all-time high of $5,626.80, set on 29 January 2026, now stands 25.58% away, while the 52-week low of $3,901.30 from 28 October 2025 is only 7.33% distant. The 14-day relative strength index sits in the low-to-mid 40s — a neutral reading that offers neither overbought nor oversold signals. Gold continues to trade below both its 50-day moving average of $4,415.02 and its 100-day average of $4,648.46, and annualised volatility has clocked in at 27.65%.
Investors will need to navigate a packed week of US data and Fed commentary to gauge the next leg. The ISM services index for June and the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting are both due, each capable of shifting rate expectations. The next FOMC decision is set for 28–29 July, but the consumer price index release on 14 July could prove an even more potent catalyst. According to the weekly Kitco News survey, market participants have rediscovered their bullish mojo after gold ended a four-week losing streak. Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, expects further gains this week. A lead analyst at Barchart also sees the technical picture brightening, pointing to renewed upward momentum in the August futures contract.
Underlying the day-to-day noise, geopolitical risks remain a persistent tailwind. The easing in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully erased the anxiety that built over past weeks, and tensions in Venezuela and Iran add to an already crowded list of hot spots — Ukraine, Sudan, the Middle East. For as long as uncertainty lingers, the structural case for gold as a portfolio diversifier and store of value, reinforced by central bank buying, is unlikely to fade.
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