SpaceX Faces a Triad of Tests as Short Sellers Tighten Their Grip
Published on 07/24/2026 at 04:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The starship is poised for its 13th test flight on Friday, but for investors in Space Exploration Technologies, the real drama is unfolding on the ground. The stock has tumbled to fresh lows, caught between a record-breaking short-seller assault, the looming expiration of insider share lock-ups, and a make-or-break earnings report that could determine whether the selling accelerates or reverses.
Shares closed at €103.88 on Thursday, a modest 2.79% gain that did little to mask the broader carnage. The stock has shed 4.12% over the past week and a staggering 23.73% over the past month. On Wednesday, it touched a new 52-week low of €97.54, extending a slide that has wiped more than a trillion dollars in market value from the company’s peak. The current market capitalization stands at roughly €1.431 trillion.
Short Sellers Are Winning Big
Behind the sell-off lies one of the most aggressive short campaigns against a large-cap IPO in recent memory. According to data from Ortex Technologies, short sellers are sitting on estimated paper profits of $15.5 billion. Around 360 million shares have been lent out, representing about 56% of the freely tradable float. The pure short interest — shares actually sold short — stands at roughly 206 million, or 32% of the public float, worth about $25 billion. That’s up sharply from 29% a week ago and just 5-7% a month ago.
Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg sees no sign of profit-taking. “The positions are still growing,” he noted. The stock, which priced its IPO at $135 and briefly soared to $225.64, has now fallen below its offering price.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Elon Musk has fired back. In a post on X, he predicted the short sellers would fail, repeating his assertion that companies with persistently high short positions have a very low survival probability. He also doubled down on his claim that SpaceX will one day be worth more than the Earth itself — a statement he called “obviously true” if the company achieves its goals. So far, the rhetoric hasn’t stopped the bleeding.
Starship’s High-Stakes Return
The test flight adds another layer of tension. After two failed attempts — the first on July 16 when multiple engines failed to ignite, and a second on July 23 scrubbed due to bad weather — SpaceX is trying again. All 33 Raptor-3 engines on the Super Heavy booster are expected to fire, generating up to 18 million pounds of thrust. This time, the booster won’t attempt a catch by the launch tower; instead, it will aim for a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
The mission’s primary objective is to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites — the first operational delivery of this next-generation hardware. The previous flight ended in partial failure when the booster was lost during its return to the Gulf after a nearly two-month hiatus. Another setback would hit the stock at a particularly vulnerable moment.
The Lock-Up Bomb
The test flight comes during an already fraught week. SpaceX has set August 4 as the date for its first quarterly earnings report as a public company, with results due after the market close. That event triggers the first tranche of a staggered lock-up expiration.
Starting August 6, the second full trading day after the release, insiders will be allowed to sell up to 20% of their restricted shares — a potential flood of up to 911.5 million shares. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares would only unlock if the stock closes at or above $175.50 on at least five of the ten trading days leading up to the report. At current levels, that scenario looks increasingly unlikely.
The confirmation of the earnings date initially brought relief, lifting the stock 3.08% on July 21 and snapping a seven-day losing streak. But the bounce quickly evaporated, and by Wednesday the shares had hit a new low.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical Signals Flash Caution
The 14-day relative strength index stands at 35.2, suggesting oversold conditions after the steep monthly decline. The annualized 30-day volatility is nearly 90%, reflecting the extreme turbulence since the IPO. From its June high of €194.46, the stock has fallen 48.70%.
Investors are now watching two critical dates: Friday’s Starship launch for a technical signal, and August 4 for a fundamental one. Management must demonstrate that operating cash flow can sustain the multibillion-dollar investment cycles in Starship and AI infrastructure, with Starlink serving as the primary revenue engine.
A clean flight combined with solid quarterly numbers could stabilize a stock that has lost nearly half its value since June. But if either test fails — the rocket or the earnings — the selling could intensify just as the largest share unlock in the company’s brief trading history arrives.
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