SpaceX Navigates Starship Abort and Pentagon AI Opportunity as Short Sellers Circle and Lockup Looms
Published on 07/19/2026 at 17:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The week ahead shapes up as a litmus test for SpaceX. On Monday evening, the company will attempt the thirteenth test flight of its Starship rocket after an automated abort on July 17 forced a delay, while simultaneously the defense contractor is reported to be in advanced talks with the US Department of Defense over a multi-billion-dollar contract for AI data-center capacity. Those two developments bookend a period of extraordinary turbulence for the freshly listed stock, which has shed more than a third of its value in 30 days and now trades well below its June IPO price.
SpaceX shares closed Friday at €108.40 in European trading, down 5.39% on the day and 34.80% over the past month. That leaves the stock just 0.99% above its 52-week low of €107.34, a level touched on the same day as the abort. In dollar terms, the equity has fallen from an IPO price of $135 to around $124, marking the first time it has slipped beneath that benchmark. The market capitalization has plunged from a peak of $2.64 trillion in mid-June to roughly $1.63 trillion — a loss of more than $1 trillion in a matter of weeks.
The immediate trigger for the sell-off was the aborted launch. An automated system halted the countdown after several Raptor engines failed to ignite. CEO Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX will replace two of the engines before the next attempt, which is scheduled for Monday at 18:45 Eastern Time. The mission, known as Flight 13, carries ambitious objectives: deploying 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites and, crucially, relighting a Raptor engine in space — a capability that will be essential for future deorbit maneuvers, in-orbit refueling, and deep-space missions. The booster is slated to land in the Indian Ocean, a milestone on the path to full reusability that underpins the Artemis program for NASA.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
While the technical setback has rattled investors, a potential Pentagon deal offers a counter-narrative. Reports indicate SpaceX is negotiating to supply computing capacity for US military AI models, leveraging its ground infrastructure that already supports satellite and cloud operations. The contract could be worth billions and would pit SpaceX against established cloud providers, with the company aiming to undercut conventional pricing. Existing partnerships with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI suggest the strategy is already gaining traction. Such a revenue stream would be particularly welcome given that SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, while its AI subsidiary xAI posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion. Still, with the stock trading at roughly 80 times sales, the valuation remains demanding.
The sustained drop has turned SpaceX into a favorite target for short sellers. According to Ortex, paper profits for bearish traders reached $8.7 billion by mid-July, with 49% of the free float out on loan. S3 Partners, using a slightly different methodology, estimated a $5 billion gain on a short position of about 192 million shares, representing 30% of the float with a notional value of $25 billion. Musk fired back on X, warning that large short positions were unlikely to survive over time, and later reiterated that warning to institutional holders. The billionaire's own fortune has suffered, falling from a peak of $1.32 trillion to $792 billion, according to Bloomberg, exacerbated by a parallel decline in Tesla shares, which sit 23% below their yearly high.
Some investors see opportunity in the wreckage. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought 147,623 SpaceX shares on July 17 across four ETFs, spending $18.3 million, with the flagship ARKK fund accounting for the bulk at 95,129 shares worth $11.8 million. Since the June listing, ARK has invested more than $475 million in the stock. The buying came amid a broader rotation: ARK also sold 26,002 Robinhood shares the same day.
Yet the headwinds are mounting. An insider lockup that frees roughly 900 million shares for sale after the company's first quarterly report could unleash additional supply. Bond yields are creeping toward junk territory, signaling that debt investors are reassessing risk. Analyst opinions are sharply divided: Raymond James has a Street-high target of $800, while the consensus average of $235.34 implies roughly 90% upside from current levels. JPMorgan, by contrast, has adopted a cautious stance. The next catalyst, beyond Monday's launch attempt, will be the August earnings report, which will offer the first comprehensive look at the post-IPO financials — and determine whether SpaceX can reclaim the narrative from the short sellers.
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