SpaceX Options Debut Shatters Records With 1.8 Million Contracts as Retail Mania Fuels a Rally That Defies Deep Losses
Published on 06/17/2026 at 17:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The options market for SpaceX opened with a ferocity unseen in modern stock market history. Traders exchanged 1.8 million contracts on the first day alone, generating premiums of roughly $2.8 billion. That figure obliterated the previous record held by Meta since 2012, when 364,000 contracts changed hands on its options debut. The call-to-put ratio stood at 1.3-to-1, with the most popular bets targeting share prices of $300 and $380. Implied volatility, however, signaled that the market is pricing in a meaningful chance of violent swings in the months ahead.
Retail investors have been the primary engine behind the stock’s ascent. On June 16, net purchases from individual traders hit $93 million, accounting for 73% of all single-stock buys that day. Analyst Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning has drawn comparisons to the meme-stock frenzy of 2021, warning of a similar dynamic at play. The stock closed its first options-trading day at roughly $202, a gain of nearly 50% from its $135 IPO price. At its intraday peak, SpaceX’s market capitalization touched $2.94 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft before settling around $2.8 trillion.
The euphoria stands in stark contrast to the company’s financial reality. For the 2025 fiscal year, SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7 billion but a net loss of $4.9 billion. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the company burned through $4.28 billion as it poured cash into expanding its Starlink constellation and artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Michael Burry, the investor famed for his bet against subprime mortgages in 2008, has described SpaceX as a “small space company” and “niche telecom provider” at current valuations. He likens the setup to the dot-com bubble, though he stops short of shorting because put options have become prohibitively expensive.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
A critical factor amplifying the rally is the extreme scarcity of tradable shares. Only about 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s stock is in the public float. This tight supply has amplified price moves and, according to market observers, created conditions conducive to a gamma squeeze — especially since options began trading. Institutional investors have taken a far more cautious view. Morningstar pegs fair value at $62 to $63 per share. Oppenheimer sets a price target of $190, while KGI Securities is the most bullish among them with a target of $227, citing long-term growth. CFRA’s Keith Snyder maintains a sell rating and a $115 target, implying a 46% downside from current levels.
The real test arrives in August and September 2026, when the first lock-up periods for early investors and employees expire. More than 10 billion shares could hit the market, threatening to overwhelm demand. Whether the stock can absorb that supply shock remains an open question.
Meanwhile, the financial industry is already looking beyond the immediate frenzy. Yorkville America and Corgi Securities have filed for ETFs built around a new tech acronym: MANGOS — Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, and SpaceX. Yorkville’s broader fund will include seven additional technology names such as Micron, while Corgi’s product will focus purely on the six core companies. Analysts expect trading to begin by the end of August. A possible inclusion of SpaceX in major indexes like the Nasdaq-100 or MSCI could also trigger a fresh wave of institutional buying, adding another layer of volatility to a stock that already resembles a high-stakes wager.
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