SpaceX Rallies From a 52-Week Low, but the Real Pressure Arrives With Earnings and a $109 Billion Lockup
Published on 07/21/2026 at 21:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares snapped a seven-day losing streak on Tuesday, climbing 6.12% to €111.38 as traders pivoted toward the company’s inaugural quarterly earnings report since its June IPO. The bounce left the stock roughly 6% above its 52-week low, touched on July 20, but the relief may prove fleeting: a torrent of insider shares worth an estimated $109 billion becomes tradable just two days after the earnings release.
The lockup expiration on August 6 will unlock up to 911.5 million insider shares — a package equivalent to 143% of the original IPO volume and roughly 20% of all insider holdings. Additional tranches will be released every 15 to 20 days through the end of 2026, though founder Elon Musk and core management are locked until June 2027. A conditional 10% release of the restricted shares depends on the stock closing above $175.50 for five of the ten trading days before the report — an unlikely scenario given that the shares closed at $119.85 on July 20, nearly 45% below their record high of $225.64 set on June 16. The IPO itself priced at $135, with the stock opening at $150 before rocketing to a valuation above $2.6 trillion at its peak.
Against this backdrop, SpaceX will deliver its first public quarterly report on August 4 after U.S. markets close. Analysts expect Q2 revenue in a range of $5.3 billion to $8.1 billion, while the company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion on full-year 2025 sales of $18.7 billion. The Starlink division, with roughly 10.3 million subscribers, continues to drive growth — revenue jumped 50% year-over-year. Capital expenditure for the xAI unit reached $7.72 billion in the first quarter alone. A recently announced bond issuance of at least $20 billion reportedly wiped out about $600 billion in market capitalization within three days.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Wall Street’s take on the stock is a study in contrasts. Bank of America rates SpaceX a Buy with a $235 target, forecasting a Q2 loss of $0.16 per share. Macquarie, also at Outperform with a $250 target, highlights the AI infrastructure angle, including a partnership with Anthropic that gives it access to the Colossus 1 cluster featuring 300 megawatts of power and 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, along with multi-year AI contracts from Alphabet. Morgan Stanley’s base case sits at $300, its bull case at $600, and its bear case as low as $75. Deutsche Bank holds a Buy with a $255 target. On the bearish side, Morningstar pegs fair value at just $63, while investor Whitney Tilson warns that the stock’s price-to-sales ratio — around 42 times based on current levels — already exceeds historical bubble thresholds; he argues the multiple was as high as 92 times at the recent peak. The broader analyst consensus remains optimistic, with 23 Buy ratings, 5 Holds, and 1 Sell, and an average price target of $243.81. Cathie Wood’s ARK funds took advantage of the July 20 sell-off, purchasing 170,634 additional shares at an average price of $120.14, and now hold over 4 million SpaceX shares.
Short sellers have piled in aggressively. Short interest as a percentage of the float surged to 32%, up from just 5–7% a month ago, representing roughly $25 billion in bearish bets. Elon Musk publicly warned short sellers that their survival chances are “very low.” So far, the shorts have paper profits of $8.7 billion, having ridden the stock down about 30% from its June high.
Operational turbulence adds to the uncertainty. A Starship test flight on July 16 was aborted after four Raptor engines failed to ignite, a setback that erased an estimated $100 billion in market value. A second attempt, designated Flight 13, is scheduled for July 23 at 18:45 ET from Starbase, Texas, and aims to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory, followed by a booster landing in the Gulf of Mexico and a controlled ocean splashdown. A separate Falcon 9 launch was also called off on July 20.
Whether the August 4 report can satisfy investor expectations will likely determine how the stock absorbs the lockup wave just days later. With analyst price targets ranging from $63 to $600, the direction is anything but clear.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 21 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
