SpaceX’s $25 Billion Short Bet Faces a Make-or-Break August as Starship Delivers Mixed Results
Published on 07/25/2026 at 20:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares closed at €101.18 on Friday, shedding 2.6% in a session that should have been dominated by a historic milestone. The stock now sits just 3.73% above its 52-week low of €97.54, a level it touched on Thursday, and has lost 25.71% over the past month alone. The 14-day relative strength index of 33.9 is flirting with oversold territory, underscoring the persistent selling pressure that has erased more than $1 trillion in market value since the June peak.
The June 16 record of €194.46 briefly pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization above $2.6 trillion, overtaking Amazon and Microsoft in a moment of euphoria. That rally has since evaporated, leaving the stock roughly 48% below its high. The decline has been accelerated by a record wave of short selling: bearish bets now total approximately $25 billion, representing nearly 32% of the free float. CEO Elon Musk has publicly warned against betting against the company’s long-term multiplanetary ambitions, but the shorts have so far ignored the caution.
Friday’s Starship Flight 13 from the Starbase facility in Texas offered a genuine breakthrough. For the first time, SpaceX deployed 20 upgraded Starlink V3 satellites into a suborbital trajectory, a payload featuring enhanced laser-communication capabilities that promise to boost future efficiency. The Starship upper stage executed its softest-ever splashdown in the Indian Ocean. But the Super Heavy booster struggled during its return: only 10 of 13 planned landing engines reignited for the braking maneuver, and just five were still firing at touchdown, resulting in a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico. Mission observers described the impact as “hard” rather than controlled.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
HSBC initiated coverage of SpaceX with a price target of $115, reflecting a cautious stance that mirrors the widening gap between operational progress and market sentiment. Despite the booster setback, Musk remains committed to an aggressive timeline. Following a full analysis of Flight 13 data, the next mission will attempt a “tower catch” of the Starship upper stage, using the mechanical “chopstick” arms at the launch tower — a maneuver previously achieved only with the Super Heavy booster in late 2024.
Operational momentum continues independently of the experimental Starship program. A Falcon 9 launch from California’s Space Launch Complex 4E is scheduled for Saturday, carrying another batch of Starlink satellites.
The real test for investors arrives in early August. The company is set to report its quarterly results on August 4, its first earnings release since the Nasdaq debut. Just two trading days later, on August 6, a lock-up cliff expires for approximately 911.5 million shares held by insiders. Early investors and employees could flood the market with up to $116 billion in fresh supply if they choose to cash out pre-IPO gains. The proximity of the earnings report to the lock-up expiration creates a uniquely volatile setup: weak numbers would hit a market already bracing for a wave of insider selling.
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