SpaceX’s Dual Reality: Record Launch Cadence Meets a Stock at Its Lowest Point
Published on 07/22/2026 at 21:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX is firing rockets into orbit at an unprecedented pace, yet its shares have never been cheaper since going public. The disconnect between operational excellence and market performance has rarely been starker, with the stock touching a fresh all-time low of €102.32 on Wednesday before closing at €102.38 — a 5.52% daily decline that leaves the equity nearly 47% below its June peak of €194.46.
The sell-off comes despite a flawless doubleheader from the Falcon 9 fleet on Tuesday. From Vandenberg Space Force Base, a rocket carrying 24 Starlink satellites lifted off after an automatic abort had scrubbed a previous attempt. Hours later, from Cape Canaveral, a second Falcon 9 deployed Northrop Grumman’s Mission Robotic Vehicle, an in-orbit servicing drone designed to extend the life of geostationary satellites. The booster used for the California mission, B1082, completed its 23rd flight and landed successfully on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Analysts point to two forces driving the decline: rising short-seller activity and the gradual release of locked-up shares following the initial public offering. The stock’s relative strength index has dropped to 33.2, signalling deeply oversold conditions, while 30-day volatility sits at 90.25% — a figure that underscores just how skittish the market has become.
Musk Fires a Warning Shot
Elon Musk took aim at the bears on Wednesday, warning that companies holding large short positions in SpaceX have “very low” survival odds. The CEO’s broadside landed as the stock was trading at €107.04, down 1.22% on the day, and just 2% above the 52-week low of €104.88 set on Monday. Over the past 30 days, the shares have shed roughly 21% of their value.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The warning echoes a pattern Musk has deployed before at Tesla, but the circumstances are different. SpaceX is still in its early months as a public company, and the lock-up period that restricted insider selling is beginning to unwind. That dynamic, combined with heavy short interest, has created a volatile cocktail that the company’s technical achievements have done little to neutralise.
Starbase Ramps Up for Flight 13
While the stock struggles, SpaceX’s Texas facility is hitting new operational milestones. Booster 20 is already on the launch pad for the next Starship flight, and Booster 21 — earmarked for Flight 14 — has rolled back from Massey’s test site after a successful cryogenic test. Running two Super Heavy boosters in parallel marks a step toward the higher launch cadence needed to make Starship’s reusability model economically viable.
The launch window for Flight 13 opens on Thursday, July 23, at 6:45 p.m. Eastern time. The mission was delayed from July 16 after four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-0. Engineers have since replaced at least two or three Raptor 3 engines on Booster 20. This flight will carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, which SpaceX says offer ten times the capacity of the V2 Mini models. It will also test hardware and software updates introduced after the Federal Aviation Administration completed its investigation into the anomaly that occurred during Flight 12.
A Business of Two Halves
Financially, SpaceX presents a study in contrasts. Starlink remains the sole reliable profit engine: active users surpassed 12 million across more than 160 countries by June 2026, and the division generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025. The broader company, however, posted a net loss of $4.9 billion last year, weighed down by heavy research and development spending.
Management is increasingly focused on monetising the existing subscriber base through price adjustments for specialised services, such as business jet connectivity. Meanwhile, new revenue streams are emerging. On Wednesday, SpaceX confirmed a partnership with xAI, supplying flight data to train the next generation of Musk’s Grok model. And on July 16, NASA selected SpaceX to provide Starlink-based laser communications terminals for the Orion spacecraft on the Artemis III mission, enabling 4K video transmissions from lunar orbit — technology already deployed on more than 12,500 satellites.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Cathie Wood’s Orbital Bet
Despite the stock’s slide, high-profile bulls remain undeterred. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest told Fox Business on Wednesday that SpaceX could become the “most important company in history.” She frames the business not as a rocket launcher but as an artificial intelligence infrastructure play. Her thesis: Starlink V3 could pave the way for orbital data centres, extending the satellite network far beyond broadband into cloud computing territory.
With a market capitalisation of roughly €1.43 trillion, SpaceX still commands a valuation that dwarfs most of the industrial world. But the gap between Musk’s bravado and the stock’s trajectory is widening. All eyes are now on the 90-minute launch window for Flight 13. A successful test could shift sentiment — particularly with the lock-up expiry looming in early August, when more share blocks become tradable and the real test of investor conviction begins.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 22 July
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