SpaceX’s First Earnings Report Arrives Amid a Lock-Up Wave That Could Double the Float
Published on 07/27/2026 at 04:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar is about to deliver a one-two punch that will test whether SpaceX’s stock has already priced in the worst — or has further to fall. On Tuesday, the company will publish its inaugural quarterly report as a publicly traded entity, and just two days later, roughly 911.5 million restricted shares worth an estimated $116 billion become eligible for sale. That volume represents 1.41 times the current free-float, and market observers note that staggered tranches could release as many as 5.3 billion shares by year-end.
The shares closed European trading Friday at €101.18, down 2.6% on the day and just 3.73% above the 52-week low touched Thursday. The relative strength index of 33.9 signals oversold territory, while annualized volatility above 67% underscores the nervousness that has gripped the stock since it hit a record €194.46 on June 16 — a decline of nearly 48% in roughly seven weeks.
Starship’s 13th Flight: Satellites Delivered, Booster Lost
The company’s most recent Starship test, the first since its Nasdaq debut, offered a mixed technical picture. The upper stage successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit and withstood reentry temperatures of 2,600 degrees Fahrenheit with minimal damage. The Super Heavy booster, however, failed its simulated landing attempt — only a portion of the 33 Raptor-3 engines reignited, causing a hard impact in the Gulf of Mexico rather than a controlled splashdown. Elon Musk has indicated the next flight could attempt a catch by the launch tower, pending data review.
For investors, the test confirms that Starlink’s expansion is advancing technologically, while also highlighting that the launch system remains a work in progress. The satellites themselves burned up on reentry as planned, but transmitted data during their brief orbital stint. The flight came after a previous attempt was scrubbed due to engine issues, prompting an FAA investigation that identified four corrective measures.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Earnings Expectations and a $15.5 Billion Short Squeeze Risk
Analyst consensus calls for second-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion and a loss of $0.28 per share. That would represent a 47% sequential revenue increase from the first quarter, when SpaceX reported $4.7 billion in sales alongside a net loss of $4.3 billion — a sharp deterioration from the $528 million loss in the year-ago period. The operating picture remains bifurcated: Starlink generated adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion, up 86% year-over-year, while the AI segment posted an operating loss of roughly $2.6 billion.
Adding to the tension, short sellers hold 56% of the free float and are sitting on unrealized gains of $15.5 billion. The lock-up expiration creates a natural catalyst for covering, but also raises the specter of additional selling pressure from insiders and early investors. The precedent of Tesla is instructive: after its lock-up expired in December 2010, the stock dropped 15%, though it went on to compound at roughly 40% annually over the long term.
Wall Street Split From $62 to $800
Analyst opinions span an extraordinary range. HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 price target — exactly in line with Friday’s U.S. close. The bank projects revenue will double to $38.2 billion this year but expects GAAP losses through 2027 and positive free cash flow no earlier than 2030, after cumulative cash burn of $106 billion.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas takes the opposite view, arguing the market is effectively valuing SpaceX’s AI business at zero when a sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests it should account for more than half of fair value. His $300 price target carries an Overweight rating. Roughly 80% of analysts rate the stock a Buy, with a consensus target near $232 — though individual targets range from $62 (Morningstar) to $800 as an outlier.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The market capitalization has fallen from roughly $3 trillion at its June peak to about $1.53 trillion currently. Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has accumulated $41.3 billion in cumulative losses, funded in part by a $25 billion bond issuance shortly after an IPO that raised $86 billion. The company is also betting heavily on artificial intelligence, with $82 billion in capacity agreements tied to Google Cloud, Anthropic and Reflection AI, plus the $60 billion acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor.
Whether those bets justify the current valuation — or whether the lock-up wave and earnings miss will push the stock lower — should become clearer in the span of a single week.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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