SpaceX’s First Quarterly Report and a Flood of New Shares Set Up a Defining Week
Published on 07/27/2026 at 15:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar is tightening around SpaceX. With its inaugural quarterly earnings as a public company due August 4 and a lock-up expiry just two days later that could unleash more than 900 million additional shares into the market, the stock is navigating a period of unusual tension. The shares closed at €100.90 in German trading, barely 3.44% above a 52-week low of €97.54 set on July 23, and have shed roughly a quarter of their value over the past month. A relative strength index of 33.7 signals that selling has reached deeply oversold territory, while 30-day volatility of around 65% underscores just how skittish trading has become.
Starship’s 13th Flight Delivers a Payload — and a Mixed Signal
SpaceX finally got its 13th Starship test flight off the ground on Monday, succeeding on the third attempt after a failed engine ignition and poor weather had scuttled earlier tries. The upper stage executed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean after roughly 65 minutes of flight — the first intact landing of its kind, according to mission tracking — with its heat shield enduring temperatures above 1,400 degrees Celsius. Twenty Starlink V3 satellites were deployed and then deliberately burned up in the atmosphere about 20 minutes later, as planned for a test mission. Elon Musk noted the rocket was flown at intentionally higher acceleration to stress the heat shield under heavy dynamic pressure, calling the test a success.
The Super Heavy booster fared less well, coming down hard in the Gulf of Mexico. The next flight is expected to attempt catching the booster with robotic arms at the launch pad. A previous V3 booster crashed in May after an engine failure, prompting an FAA investigation that required four corrective actions before flight could resume.
For investors, the test offered the first real-world look at Starship’s commercial readiness since the company went public — and the picture remains ambiguous. HSBC, which initiated coverage on Friday with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, has anchored its skepticism partly on how long it may take to turn Starship into a revenue engine. Even in its most optimistic scenario, which assumes commercial Starship operations begin in 2027, HSBC sees only $293 per share.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
HSBC’s Cautious Debut Adds to the Gloom
HSBC’s initiation landed with a thud. The stock fell as much as 6% in New York on Friday, closing almost exactly at the new $115 target. In German trading, the shares lost 2.6% to end at €101.18, leaving them 24.68% lower on a monthly basis and just 3.73% above their 52-week trough. The RSI of 33.9 signaled that the sell-off was approaching oversold conditions.
The bank’s analysts broke SpaceX into its component businesses and added a double premium for Musk’s innovation factor, yet still arrived at a valuation well below the $135 IPO price from mid-June. They expressed doubt about the company’s more ambitious bets — orbital data centers, the Terafab chip project, and a lunar economy — and flagged as an operational warning that SpaceX has already begun turning away Falcon 9 customers for launches after 2028 and stopped accepting new reservations for its rideshare program.
The numbers behind the caution are stark. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $1.94 billion. Starlink provided the stable core with $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit, while the AI segment produced $818 million in revenue and an operating loss of $2.47 billion. HSBC expects total revenue to double to $38.2 billion this year but forecasts GAAP losses through 2027 and positive free cash flow no earlier than 2030, with cumulative capital needs of roughly $106 billion over that period.
A Lock-Up Wave That Could Triple the Float
The lock-up expiry on August 6 looms as the most immediate pressure point. Some 911.5 million restricted shares will become tradable — equivalent to 1.41 times the current free float. The public float today represents only about 5% of the 13.2 billion total shares outstanding, and market observers warn that the freely tradable volume could triple by the end of September alone. Morningstar estimates that more than 6.4 billion shares could eventually become available for trading. If demand doesn’t keep pace, the supply overhang could weigh heavily on the stock.
Short sellers have already piled in. Short interest stands at roughly 32% of the float, with a notional value of about $25 billion, up from 29% the prior week. Elon Musk publicly warned short sellers that their chances of survival were slim. Michael Burry, the “The Big Short” investor, considered opening a short position but ultimately passed, saying he viewed SpaceX as “fundamentally a small space company” that wasn’t attractive enough for a bet despite its high valuation. Short sellers are already sitting on billions in paper gains, according to one estimate.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analysts Split, Ark Invest Buys the Dip
The analyst community remains deeply divided. Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $300 price target, projecting revenue climbing from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion in 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040, driven largely by artificial intelligence applications. The median price target across Wall Street stands at $243.81 — implying more than a doubling from recent levels — with a range spanning from $115 to $800. Macquarie reaffirmed its Outperform rating, giving the stock a brief bounce of about 3% over the weekend.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest took advantage of the weakness, buying $21.3 million worth of shares after the stock had fallen roughly 45% from its all-time high. SpaceX now accounts for about 4.5% of the Ark Innovation ETF. Investor Ross Gerber advised against betting against the company, drawing parallels to Tesla’s early, wildly volatile years.
The next two weeks will test whether the stock can find a floor. The combination of first-ever quarterly earnings and a record-breaking lock-up expiry could determine whether SpaceX stabilizes near its lows or extends its slide. For now, the uncertainty around supply, valuation, and the pace of Starship’s commercialization is keeping the pressure firmly on.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
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