SpaceX’s Market Value Cuts in Half as a Pivotal August Looms
Published on 07/27/2026 at 20:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The euphoria that greeted SpaceX’s public listing in June has evaporated. The stock has now surrendered more than half its value from the record high of €194.46 set on June 16, sliding to a fresh 52-week trough of €96.30 on Monday. At last check, shares were changing hands at €97.82, down 3.32% on the day — a stark contrast to the triumphant narrative the company has been writing in the skies above Texas and California.
A Perfect Storm of Supply and Skepticism
The sell-off is unfolding against a calendar that looks anything but forgiving. On August 6, the first lock-up period expires, releasing 911.5 million shares that have been tied up since the IPO. Just two days earlier, on August 4, SpaceX will deliver its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company — a debut that will force investors to weigh the numbers against the hype.
Short sellers have already placed their bets. Since the June listing, bearish positions have swelled to record levels, with roughly 56% of the free float now lent out for short sales. Reuters reports that these traders have built up a paper profit of $15.5 billion since the IPO. Elon Musk took to X to fire a warning shot at the shorts, arguing that the market is ignoring the company’s long-term fundamentals in favor of short-term noise.
The timing of the downturn is particularly awkward for the CME Group, which launched single-stock futures on SpaceX under the ticker SPCX on the very same day the stock hit its new low. Market participants expect the new derivatives to boost liquidity but also to amplify intraday swings — exactly the kind of volatility that is already running at an annualized 64.53% over 30 days.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Starship Delivers, but the Market Isn’t Impressed
On the operational front, SpaceX is firing on most cylinders. Friday’s 13th test flight of Starship lifted off from the Texas Starbase, deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, and successfully reignited its Raptor engine in space before a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster, however, failed to relight all 13 engines for its landing burn and crashed hard into the Gulf of Mexico. Musk has already announced plans to attempt catching the upper stage with the launch tower on the next flight.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu described the test as “solid progress,” noting that the upper stage achieved all its mission objectives. A day later, a Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base delivered 24 more Starlink satellites to orbit, with the first stage landing cleanly on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You.”
None of that has been enough to arrest the stock’s slide. The technical achievements are being drowned out by a more fundamental reckoning: investors are struggling to assign value to SpaceX’s most ambitious — and most expensive — bets.
The AI Division: Priced at Zero
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has done the math that many market participants are now quietly repeating. At a share price around €100, he calculates, the market is effectively valuing SpaceX’s artificial intelligence and ground-data operations at zero — or even negative. Jonas maintains a $300 price target, with more than half of that valuation tied to AI activities, including the two Colossus data centers and plans for orbital computing capacity.
The numbers tell a tale of two businesses. Starlink, the satellite internet division, generated an operating profit of $1.19 billion on revenue of $3.26 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The AI segment, by contrast, posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion over the same period. Yet the company as a whole still managed net income of $4.27 billion for the quarter — a dramatic turnaround from the $528 million net loss it recorded for the full year 2025.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Underpinning the AI valuation are cloud contracts with Google, which is scheduled to pay $920 million per month for graphics processor access from October 2026 through June 2029, and a similar agreement with Anthropic. These deals are real, but they are also years away from generating the kind of cash flow that would justify the current market capitalization.
Cathie Wood Buys the Dip
Not everyone is running for the exits. Cathie Wood’s ARK funds purchased roughly $21 million worth of SpaceX shares in July, betting that the sell-off has gone too far. The broader analyst consensus remains tilted toward the bullish side, with most banks maintaining buy ratings and price targets well above current levels.
The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 32.2, creeping toward oversold territory — a technical signal that some traders interpret as a precursor to a bounce. But with nearly a billion shares about to become tradable and the company’s first quarterly report as a public entity just days away, the next two weeks will test whether that optimism is grounded in fundamentals or simply wishful thinking.
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