SpaceX’s Starship Delivers Satellites to Orbit, but the Stock Can’t Escape the Lock-Up Shadow
Published on 07/26/2026 at 22:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX pulled off two launches in as many days over the weekend, placing the first batch of operational V3 Starlink satellites into orbit and adding 24 more units to the constellation from California. Yet the company’s stock continues to drift lower, closing Friday at €101.18 in German trading — a 2.6% decline that leaves the equity within striking distance of its 52-week low. The gap between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been wider.
The 13th test flight of the Starship system, which lifted off from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas on Friday, marked a genuine technical achievement. The upper stage, designated Ship 40, released 20 of the new-generation satellites, relit a Raptor engine in space, and executed a controlled descent before splashing down in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster, however, failed to repeat its earlier landing successes: only a fraction of the required engines ignited during the landing burn, resulting in a hard water landing in the Gulf of Mexico. The satellites themselves were deliberately deorbited after the test, having transmitted data during their brief time in orbit.
The mixed outcome underscores a reality that investors are already pricing in: Starship is making progress toward full reusability, but it is not there yet. The next flight, Flight 14, is expected to attempt a tower catch of the upper stage using the “Mechazilla” arms at Starbase — a maneuver that, if successful, would represent a giant leap toward the rapid turnaround the company is betting on.
The Calendar Is the Real Headwind
For all the drama in the skies above Texas, the forces weighing on SpaceX shares are terrestrial and chronological. August 4 marks the company’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded entity, with analysts forecasting revenue of roughly $6.9 billion — a 47% sequential jump — and a loss of $0.28 per share. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up agreement covering 911.6 million shares from earlier funding rounds expires, unleashing a wave of stock that has been off-limits to trading since the June IPO.
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That overhang has been the dominant narrative since the stock hit an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16. Since then, the shares have shed nearly 48% of their value. The relative strength index now sits at 33.9, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and often precedes a bounce. But technical indicators are competing with a wall of supply that has traders bracing for further pressure.
Alphabet’s quarterly filing added another layer of context. The Google parent disclosed a SpaceX stake valued at $94.1 billion as of June 30, equivalent to roughly 5% of the company. Of that position, about $80 billion is subject to standard short-term lock-up restrictions, while $14.1 billion remains locked until the third quarter of 2027. Alphabet’s investment gains from the SpaceX holding pushed the tech giant’s total quarterly investment income to nearly $100 billion.
Analysts Split, Shorts Circling
The range of analyst opinions on SpaceX is unusually wide. Morgan Stanley sees fair value at $300 per share, while Morningstar pegs it at just $63 — a chasm that reflects the difficulty of valuing a business that blends a profitable satellite internet operation with a cash-burning launch vehicle program and speculative bets on artificial intelligence. Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has accumulated $41.3 billion in cumulative losses, offset in part by a $25 billion bond issue placed shortly after the IPO, which itself raised $86 billion.
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The company is also making aggressive moves in AI. It has signed capacity agreements worth $82 billion with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI, and completed a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor. Whether those wagers will justify a market capitalization of roughly €1.37 trillion is a question that the upcoming earnings call — and the flood of unlocked shares — will help answer.
For now, the stock is caught between a promising technical setup and a fundamentally uncertain near-term outlook. The next catalyst is clear: Flight 14’s tower catch attempt could shift the narrative back to engineering milestones, but the calendar is unforgiving. With the lock-up expiration looming and the first quarterly report days away, SpaceX investors are bracing for a pivotal week — one that will test whether the stock’s slide has overshot reality or has further to run.
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