SpaceX Shares Hover Near Record Lows as First Earnings Report and Insider Lock-Up Expiry Loom
Published on 07/29/2026 at 10:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX stock staged a modest recovery on Tuesday, climbing 2.28 percent to close at €102.28 in German trading, after briefly plumbing a fresh all-time low of €94.15 earlier in the session. The bounce, however, leaves the shares just 7.5 percent above that 52-week trough, with the relative strength index at 35 — deep in oversold territory but not yet flashing a definitive reversal signal. The 30-day volatility reading of nearly 65 percent underscores just how jittery the market has become.
The sell-off since SpaceX’s market debut has been brutal by any measure. Priced at $135 for its June 12 IPO, the stock surged to a peak of $225.64 just four days later, only to slide to $107.01 in U.S. trading on Tuesday — a new record low. It recovered to close at $116.41, up 2.56 percent on the day. From the June high, the company has shed more than half its value, with market capitalization shrinking from roughly $3 trillion to about $1.5 trillion. Combined with Tesla, Elon Musk’s two publicly traded vehicles have vaporized around $1.5 trillion in market value since mid-June.
A Two-Week Crucible for the Stock
All eyes are now on August 4, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company after the closing bell. Management has scheduled a webcast for 3:30 p.m. Chicago time, offering investors their first detailed look at the books since the blockbuster IPO. The options market is pricing in a roughly 15 percent swing in the stock following the release — a measure of how pivotal the market considers this report.
Two trading days later, on August 6, the lock-up period expires for early investors and insiders. Up to 911.5 million shares — representing 20 percent of eligible holdings and more than doubling the current free float — will become tradable. Reports indicate that a total of 5.33 billion shares could be unlocked by December. CNBC’s Jim Cramer has advised investors to hold off buying, warning that the overhang from insider selling could continue to weigh on the stock. He also flagged that SpaceX’s AI contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet carry 90-day cancellation clauses, adding another layer of uncertainty.
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Cathie Wood Buys the Dip
Despite the carnage, some institutional investors are stepping in. Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment purchased 124,543 SpaceX shares on July 28, worth approximately $14.1 million, spread across several ARK funds including the flagship Innovation ETF and the specialized Space Exploration & Innovation ETF. This follows a larger $36.1 million purchase by ARK just a day earlier.
Wall Street analysts remain broadly bullish, though their targets vary wildly. Bank of America Securities reiterated its buy rating with a $235 price target, while Bernstein sees fair value at $239. HSBC initiated coverage with a hold rating and a $115 target, Morgan Stanley has a $300 target, and Raymond James is the most optimistic at $800. The average analyst consensus sits around $236.71, with a range spanning from $62 to $800.
Starship Test Delivers Mixed Results
Operationally, the company continues to push forward. During Starship’s 13th test flight on July 24, the spacecraft successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, reignited its engine in orbit for the first time, and survived a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean intact. The Super Heavy booster, however, failed to land after several of its 13 engines did not relight as planned.
The Starlink business remains the key growth driver. The division generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up roughly 50 percent year-over-year, with operating profit surging 120 percent. Subscriber numbers reached 10.3 million by March. Total trailing twelve-month revenue hit $19.3 billion, a 33 percent increase. Those numbers, however, come against heavy capital spending: SpaceX posted an operating loss of $1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, with roughly $930 million flowing into Starship development during that three-month period.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Political Spotlight Adds to the Narrative
The stock’s turbulence has also drawn scrutiny in Washington. At least six members of the U.S. House of Representatives — or their family members — purchased SpaceX shares worth up to $245,000 within six days of the IPO. Several of those lawmakers sit on committees overseeing defense, satellite communications, or securities markets, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.
As the company barrels toward its earnings release, the market is weighing three forces simultaneously: the first public look at SpaceX’s financials, the looming overhang from insider selling, and the steady drumbeat of operational milestones. How investors balance those factors over the next two weeks will likely determine whether the stock can build on Tuesday’s fragile recovery or sink to new lows.
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