SpaceX Stock: Engine Gremlins, Lockup Tsunami, and a $75-$800 Target Range Collide
Published on 07/20/2026 at 14:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX equity is caught in a tug-of-war between engineering setbacks and stratospheric long-term ambitions. Since its debut on public markets in June, the stock has shed roughly 45% of its value, leaving it skimming just above a fresh all-time low. Yet the same analyst community that sees the shares worth as little as $75 also has a bull case of $800 — a market capitalisation north of $10 trillion. The near-term picture, however, is dominated by a high-profile rocket failure, a wall of insider selling, and a short squeeze narrative that is already generating billions in paper profits for bears.
Starship Flight 13: Two Dates, One Engine Problem
The immediate catalyst for the latest leg lower was the aborted launch of Starship Flight 13 on July 16. During the countdown, only 29 of the 33 Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy first stage ignited, forcing an automatic shutdown. SpaceX subsequently replaced two engines and made modifications to the propulsion system. The company initially slated a reattempt for Thursday, July 23, with a 90-minute launch window starting at 5:45 p.m. local time. Elon Musk, however, muddied the waters by suggesting Friday, July 24, before the schedule was finally set for that day. On the prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of a July 23 launch climbed from 23% to 55% as nearly $440,000 in wagers piled on.
The mission is designed to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory. The upper stage is to splash down in the Indian Ocean while the booster attempts a landing in the Gulf of Mexico. It marks the second flight of the Starship V3 variant and the first major test since the IPO. SpaceX aims to begin regular orbital Starlink deliveries via Starship before year-end. In the previous flight in May, five of 33 engines failed during a relight attempt; the satellites were still released but the booster crashed in the Gulf of Mexico.
The abort alone erased an estimated $100 billion in market capitalisation, according to market reports, knocking the shares below their IPO price of $135. The stock subsequently scraped a 52-week low of €107.34 in mid-July and lately traded at €109.92, a gain of 1.4% on the day but still only 2.4% above that trough.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Short Sellers Circle as Lockup Countdown Begins
The stock’s slide has been a gift for bearish traders. Some 30% of the 640 million free-float shares are estimated to be sold short, and those positions have generated roughly $4 billion in paper profits since the IPO, according to market reports. Musk, never one to mince words, called the shorts’ survival probability “very gering” — very low — in a public post. While that bravado may boost retail sentiment, the mechanics of the coming share release pose a far more tangible risk.
The first lockup expiration will hit shortly after the company’s inaugural quarterly report as a public entity, expected in early August. At that point, up to 911.5 million shares — worth an estimated $115 billion at current prices and representing roughly 20% of insider holdings — will become tradable. Further tranches of 7% each are scheduled for days 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 after the IPO, meaning that by the start of December around 40% of the total outstanding stock will be free to trade. Musk’s own stake, however, remains locked until June 2027. The narrow free float — only about 281 million of the 7.57 billion total shares are currently in circulation — has amplified the post-IPO volatility and leaves the stock acutely sensitive to any change in supply.
Analyst Targets: From $75 to $800
The coverage that has built up since the listing reflects a remarkable lack of consensus. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale kicked off with a “Strong Buy” and a price target of $800 — a valuation that would imply a market cap above $10 trillion. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas issued a base case of $300, a bull case of $600 and a bear case of $75, underpinning his view with revenue projections that leap from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040, largely driven by the planned Starmind AI satellite constellation. JPMorgan rates the stock “Overweight” with a target of $225, while Goldman Sachs initiated at “Buy” with $205. Piper Sandler stands out among the sceptics with a “Neutral” rating and a $156 target, citing the lockup overhang and uncertainty around a possible Tesla takeover. The median analyst target sits at $236, but the dispersion is extraordinary.
Gary Black of the Future Fund has sounded a loud caution: the enterprise-value-to-sales ratio of roughly 40 times is historically unprecedented, compared with Nvidia’s 10-to-25 times range. Black has said he will only consider buying the stock below $100.
Earnings and Starlink Economics
The first quarterly report as a listed company is due in early August, and expectations span a wide range. Analysts estimate revenue of $5.3 billion to $8.1 billion, with consensus at $6.87 billion, and a per-share loss of between $0.12 and $0.42. For the third quarter the Street is already pencilling in $12 billion in sales. In the 2025 fiscal year, SpaceX posted total revenue of $18.67 billion, of which Starlink contributed $11.4 billion and generated an operating profit of $4.4 billion. The Starship test campaign is critical to scaling the V3 satellites that are supposed to drive that revenue higher.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Billionaire investor Cathie Wood has taken advantage of the share price weakness, buying $51 million worth of stock in recent days. At the same time, the bond market is flashing a warning: SpaceX placed $25 billion in bonds after the IPO, and yields on those notes as well as credit-default-swap costs have reportedly risen, reflecting heightened risk perception.
For all the near-term noise — a broken rocket, a looming stock overhang, a short interest of 30% — the ultimate trajectory of SpaceX equity rests on the success of Starship. A clean Flight 13 could restore confidence and refocus the narrative on the technology story; another failure would almost certainly push the shares to fresh lows and deepen the losses of the bears who are already sitting on $4 billion in winnings.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 20 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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