SpaceX Stock Rattled by Starship Setback as $800 Bulls and $30 Bears Face Off Over Lockup Overhang
Published on 07/20/2026 at 17:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gulf between bullish and bearish price targets for SpaceX has grown to an extraordinary chasm, spanning from $30 to $900, as the company’s stock hovers near its 52-week low following a Starship engine failure and with a massive insider share release looming. On Monday, shares of the space and satellite firm, trading under the ticker SPCX, slipped another 2.07% to €106.16, leaving them just 0.84% above the 52-week trough of €105.28 hit on July 20. The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 33.6, a level that typically signals deeply oversold conditions, yet the selling pressure has been relentless, with the stock down more than 30% over the past month.
The immediate catalyst was a scrubbed launch of Starship Flight 13 on July 16. The countdown was halted seconds before liftoff when multiple Raptor-3 engines failed to ignite — four of the 33 first-stage powerplants, according to one report. SpaceX subsequently replaced two engines and applied software and hardware upgrades to the propulsion system. A fresh attempt is now slated for Thursday, July 23, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 17:45 local time. Elon Musk briefly muddied the timeline by hinting at a Friday launch on social media, but the company later confirmed the Thursday window. The mission aims to send 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory — six of which are fitted with cameras to analyze the heatshield — in what would be the second flight of the V3 Starship variant. It is also the first major test since SpaceX went public in June. The aborted attempt reportedly erased about $100 billion in market value, a staggering cost for a single technical glitch. On the prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of a successful launch on July 23 jumped from 23% to 55% after the official date was set, with over $440,000 wagered.
That market cap destruction has been amplified by a heavy short interest. Approximately 30% of the 640 million freely traded shares are estimated to be sold short — a figure that translates to roughly $4 billion in paper profits for bearish investors since the stock fell below the IPO price of $135. Musk has publicly warned that short sellers’ survival chances are “very low,” but the data suggests they are far from covering their positions. Adding to the pressure, the first lockup expiration is fast approaching. According to the IPO lockup schedule, 20% of insider-held shares become eligible for sale on August 11 — a step that follows the release of the company’s first quarterly earnings report as a public entity, expected in early August. Subsequent tranches of 7% each will unlock on days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 after the IPO, meaning roughly 40% of total shares could be freely traded by early December. Primary article sources specify that further waves hit on September 24, October 25, and November 7, each representing 14% to 28% of insider holdings. Musk’s own stake, however, remains locked until June 2027. The sheer size of the impending supply has some analysts warning of a structural overhang: up to 911.5 million shares worth an estimated $115 billion could eventually enter the market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Yet the analysts are anything but united on what that supply means for valuation. Raymond James’ Brian Gesuale launched coverage with a Strong Buy and an $800 price target — a call that implies a market capitalization in excess of $10 trillion. On the opposite pole, former Fidelity manager George Noble sees fair value at just $30. IPO expert Jay Ritter, known as “Mr. IPO,” has said he considered taking a short position. The rating agency CFRA’s Keith Snyder rates the stock a Sell. In between, the consensus average from major firms sits at roughly $243.81, implying about 97% upside from current levels, with 23 Buys, 5 Holds, and just one Sell recommendation. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth targets $225, Needham’s Ryan Koontz $250, Evercore ISI has an Outperform and $230, while Citi’s analysts model a base case of $200 and a bull case of $900. Goldman Sachs initiated at Buy with $205, and Piper Sandler is Neutral at $156.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has been one of the most visible buyers during the selloff, scooping up 147,805 shares on July 17, valued at roughly $51 million. The move stands in sharp contrast to the bearish consensus on the options and credit markets: SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds after the IPO, and both yields and credit-default-swap costs have reportedly crept higher. For the fiscal year 2025, SpaceX reported total revenue of $18.67 billion, with the Starlink division contributing $11.4 billion and posting $4.4 billion in operating profit. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $6.87 billion, accelerating to $12 billion in the third quarter.
All eyes now are on Thursday’s launch attempt. If the Raptor-3 upgrades hold and the Starship reaches its suborbital target, the near-term narrative may shift from technical failure to engineering resilience. If not, the stock could test new lows just as the lockup clock runs out and the first quarterly report arrives — a combination that has short sellers salivating and long-term bulls bracing for volatility.
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