SpaceX Stock’s First Month: A 38% Plunge, a Bond Market Warning, and a Make-or-Break Starship Flight
Published on 07/14/2026 at 13:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Just over a month after its record-breaking initial public offering, SpaceX finds itself in a precarious position. The stock that debuted at $135 per share on June 12 and briefly surged to $225.64 on June 16 has since reversed course sharply, trading around €121.72 (and briefly dipping below $140 in US markets) — just 1.26% above its 52-week low. That descent, a 38% tumble from the peak in dollar terms, has erased tens of billions in market value and pushed Elon Musk’s personal fortune below $900 billion.
The selling has been relentless: the stock lost 26.7% over the past 30 days and 7% in the last week alone. Two consecutive daily drops of 4.5% and 4.2% on July 13 brought it within a whisker of the $135 IPO price. The annualized 30-day volatility of 97.6% reflects how on edge traders have become, even though the relative strength index of 41.1 signals the stock is not yet oversold.
One of the more overlooked warning signals is coming from the credit markets. SpaceX’s 30-year BBB-rated bonds are now trading with a credit spread of over two percentage points — wider than the average 1.55-percentage-point spread for BB-rated paper. The yield on those bonds jumped from 6.7% to 7.3% within two weeks of issuance. At the same time, Wall Street primary dealers have become net sellers of corporate bonds for the first time since 1998, a shift that coincides with a record $570 billion in bond issuance by large AI companies so far in 2026, double the prior year’s pace. For a company that reported a GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and cumulative losses exceeding $41 billion, the debt market’s tightening is a red flag.
Yet on the equity side, analyst opinions remain wildly divergent. The consensus among the 29 covering analysts points to a price target of roughly $239, implying 65% upside from current levels. Deutsche Bank started coverage with a Buy and a $255 target, while Morgan Stanley issued an Overweight rating with a $300 base case, a $600 bull case, and a $75 bear case. Raymond James holds the Street high at $800, a valuation that would exceed $10 trillion. Bank of America set a $235 target, Goldman Sachs $205, JPMorgan $225, and Citi a more cautious $200. Only one firm recommends selling, and Susquehanna remains the lone neutral voice.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Skeptics, however, argue that the stock is a narrative-driven bet with shaky fundamentals. Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital called the $2 trillion valuation a “Dogecoin equivalent,” pointing out that less than 5% of shares are actually in public hands. That thin free float — which could balloon by as much as 900% when lock-up agreements begin to expire after the second-quarter earnings report — raises the risk of a severe supply shock. Elon Musk himself is barred from selling his roughly 46% stake until at least June 2027, but other early investors will gain the ability to sell starting in August. Adam Khoo has likened SpaceX to a “too hard pile” in the Buffett lexicon, citing unclear cash flows and a narrative-driven price.
The company’s financials lend some support to the bears. Starlink, its satellite-internet division, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, up nearly 50% year over year, and now counts over 10.3 million subscribers. However, the broader SpaceX business, including the loss-making AI segment, dragged overall results into the red. The AI unit alone lost $6.4 billion last year, and its Grok model controls only an estimated 5% of the market versus ChatGPT’s 50%. The recent $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI startup Cursor, under which the two companies launched a closed beta of a joint AI agent called “Sand,” has added to the strategic uncertainty.
Operationally, SpaceX continues to notch achievements. The FAA has cleared the next Starship test flight for as early as July 16, after completing its investigation into the booster anomaly on the previous flight. The 55-day turnaround between flights is a marked improvement from the 221-day gap that preceded it. Flight 13 is expected to deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites for the first time, a key milestone for the company’s most profitable division. Meanwhile, a Falcon 9 launch on July 14 delivered 29 Starlink V2 Mini satellites, with the booster logging its 36th mission. In the first half of 2026, SpaceX has added roughly 1,589 satellites to its constellation, bringing the total to over 10,700.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Competition is also mounting. China’s Long March 10B performed its first successful booster landing on July 10, a feat that Bernstein said underscores Beijing’s rise as SpaceX’s biggest challenger — though the firm maintained its Outperform rating with a $239 price target. The next few weeks will test whether Starship’s progress and Starlink’s cash generation can outweigh the mounting headwinds from the bond market, the lock-up wave, and a stock that has lost more than a quarter of its value in a single month.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 14 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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