SpaceX Stock Struggles Near Record Lows as Starship Flight 13 and Lockup Expiry Test Investor Conviction
Published on 07/16/2026 at 13:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between SpaceX's operational achievements and its stock market performance has never felt wider. On Tuesday, the company celebrated the 600th flight of a reused booster; on Wednesday, shares touched a fresh 52-week low of €115.70. By Thursday morning, the stock had recovered to €118.38 – a gain of 0.48% – but that still left it barely above the IPO price of $135, a level it broke below for the first time since its June debut.
The correction has been brutal. From the all-time high of €194.46 reached on June 16, the stock has shed nearly 40%. Over the past seven days the decline exceeded 11%, and the one-month drop stands at almost 32%. Annualized 30-day volatility of roughly 94% underscores the extreme swings that have defined trading since the listing.
Against this turbulent backdrop, SpaceX is pressing ahead with its most ambitious test yet. The 13th integrated flight of Starship is scheduled to lift off from the Texas Starbase at 18:45 local time, carrying the first operational batch of Starlink V3 satellites. These new satellites are designed to increase the network’s capacity by more than twenty-fold compared with current Falcon-based V2 launches. Twenty of them will ride aboard Starship’s upper stage, though they will re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere after separation, following the suborbital trajectory.
The Federal Aviation Administration cleared the launch on Monday after completing an investigation into an anomaly during the previous flight. SpaceX has since refined the booster’s ignition sequence for its flip maneuver and improved the reliability of the Super Heavy engines during reignition. Key test objectives include a successful stage separation, a controlled booster landing in the Gulf of Mexico, and a targeted splashdown of the upper stage in the Indian Ocean.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
While the Starship program commands investor attention, it also consumes cash. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, with roughly $3 billion funneled into Starship research and development. That financial reality is now converging with a structural shift in the stock’s supply. Lock-up agreements that restricted insider selling are beginning to expire, creating an overhang that analysts say will weigh on the stock in the coming weeks.
According to Jeff Jacobson of 22V Research, around 20% of the locked insider shares will be freed after the second-quarter earnings release, expected in early to mid-August. An additional 10% block will unlock if the stock trades 30% above its IPO price. Smaller tranches of roughly 7% each could be released in August, September and October. Elon Musk’s own 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027, removing the single largest potential source of supply.
The first earnings report as a public company is due in early August, coinciding with the initial lock-up expiration. The staggered release schedule should cushion any single day of selling pressure, but the combination of technical weakness, unproven Starship economics, and looming insider sales leaves little room for a near-term rally.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Meanwhile, the operational machinery keeps churning. Later today a Falcon 9 will lift off from Vandenberg Space Force Base carrying 21 communications satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 transport layer, designed to enhance military communications and missile warning systems. On the ground, two rural Texas school districts approved tax breaks worth $1.66 billion for the planned “Terafab” chip facility, which will produce semiconductors for broadband satellites and data centers and is expected to create more than 3,000 jobs.
The Starship test flight will be closely watched not only for its technical outcome but for its signal to investors. A clean separation and landing would demonstrate that SpaceX has solved the problems that plagued Flight 12. For a stock that has lost nearly a third of its value since its first day of trading, that signal cannot come soon enough.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
