SpaceX Taps Debt Markets for $20 Billion as Lock-Up and Starship Flight Loom Over Stock
Published on 07/14/2026 at 19:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX has placed $20 billion in unsecured bonds to repay a bridge loan tied to its acquisition of xAI, a move that underscores the capital intensity of Elon Musk’s space venture even as its stock drifts back toward the IPO price. The debt sale comes just weeks after the company’s June 11 listing, which raised $135 per share but saw the stock surge to an intraday record of $225.64 before reversing sharply. By Monday’s close in European trading, the shares sat at €122.00, barely 1.5% above the 52-week low of €120.20 set on July 13. In dollar terms, that translated to $139.14 — a stone’s throw from the $135 IPO price and a far cry from the $160.95 first trade or the $225.64 peak.
The stock has now lost more than $800 billion in market capitalization from its peak valuation of roughly $2.9 trillion, though the company still commands a market cap of around €1.71 trillion ($1.87 trillion) and ranks among the seven largest U.S. corporations. The slide has been exceptionally volatile: the 30-day annualized volatility stands near 98%, and the relative strength index of 41.9 indicates the stock is not yet in oversold territory. Over the past week, the shares shed 6.25%, while the monthly decline has stretched to 26.04%. A modest 0.66% gain on Tuesday offered little relief after Monday’s €122.00 close.
Lock-up Overhang and Insider Selling Risk
Investor anxiety is concentrated on the expiration of insider lock-up agreements. The first 20% of restricted shares become eligible for sale after the company reports its inaugural quarterly results, expected in early August, with full release scheduled for December. Analysts warn that the floating supply could swell by as much as 900%, flooding a market that has already shown fragile demand. Fund manager Gary Black has cautioned that the stock could dip below $135 once the initial tranche unlocks, while Peter Schiff interpreted the broader sell-off as a potential canary in the coal mine for the AI boom. Michael Burry, known for his bet against the housing market, expressed skepticism about SpaceX’s valuation but declined to short the stock due to the cost of borrowing shares. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, by contrast, bought roughly 130,241 shares on July 13, spending about $21.3 million across three of its funds.
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Adding to the bearish sentiment, Subversive Markets Lab has filed with the SEC for two new ETFs — QQNE and SPNE — that will explicitly exclude companies linked to Elon Musk, including Tesla and SpaceX. The funds are expected to launch around September 21. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 gave it a 1.2% weighting in the QQQ trust, but index buying has done little to stem the tide.
Starship Flight 13 as a Near-Term Catalyst
All eyes are now on July 16, when the Federal Aviation Administration has cleared SpaceX for the 13th test flight of Starship — the first launch since the company went public. The FAA’s investigation into the failed Flight 12 on May 22 identified heat damage to propulsion components and faulty engine alarms as the cause of the booster loss; SpaceX has since implemented four corrective measures. The upcoming test will attempt to deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, perform the first in-space relight of a Raptor engine, and conclude with a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster is slated to land in the Gulf of Mexico.
The launch window opens at 6:45 a.m. Eastern from the Starbase facility in Texas. A successful flight would mark a critical operational milestone and demonstrate Starship’s ability to deliver payloads, but sceptics note that the stock’s slide has been driven more by financial mechanics than by technical setbacks.
Analyst Divide Spans from $30 to $800
Wall Street remains deeply split on SpaceX’s fair value. At the bullish extreme, Raymond James’ Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a Strong Buy and an $800 price target, implying a market cap of $10.5 trillion and projecting revenue of $837 billion and EBITDA of $696 billion by 2031. Morgan Stanley rates the stock Overweight with a $300 target, while Bank of America’s Ron Epstein argues for $235, citing the company’s cost leadership in launch — from $10,000–$20,000 per kilogram historically to roughly $2,000 on Falcon 9 and potentially $50–$100 on Starship. The median consensus compiled by MarketBeat sits at $239.12 with a “Moderate Buy” rating.
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On the other side, MoffettNathanson sees fair value at just $131, CFRA’s Keith Snyder projects a decline to $115, Morningstar pegs intrinsic worth at $63, and hedge fund manager George Noble believes the stock is worth only $30. The divergence reflects how little consensus exists on SpaceX’s future earnings power, given that the company posted 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion and a net loss of $4.9 billion. Starlink remains the sole profit engine, with $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit from 10.3 million subscribers. The AI segment, which generated $3.2 billion in revenue, swung to an operating loss of $6.36 billion.
Competitive Pressure and the Debt Burden
International rivals are also chipping away at SpaceX’s narrative. China’s CASC successfully launched and recovered the reusable Long March 10B from the sea, and Japan reported a successful test of its own reusable rocket — both developments that weighed on sentiment around July 13. Combined with the lock-up overhang, the pending quarterly results, and the fresh $20 billion in debt, SpaceX faces a thicket of headwinds that will test whether its nearly $1.9 trillion market cap can hold. The next big test, beyond Starship, comes with the first earnings call — and the simultaneous unlocking of insider shares.
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