Starship's Critical Test, Musk's Iron Grip: The Twin Forces Behind SpaceX's Record IPO
Published on 05/20/2026 at 06:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX enters a defining week as it prepares to launch the most ambitious version of its Starship rocket yet, while simultaneously fielding growing investor unease over Elon Musk’s near-total voting control in the company’s planned public listing. Wednesday’s Flight 12 from Starbase, Texas, is not just an engineering milestone — it will serve as the strongest signal yet of whether the technical maturity of the rocket can match the towering valuation expectations that have built up ahead of a June Nasdaq debut.
The new Starship V3 stands 124 metres tall and is powered by Raptor-3 engines that generate roughly 80 Meganewtons of thrust at liftoff — a substantial leap over previous iterations. Lighter engine components and redesigned heat-shield tiles aim to improve robustness. The flight plan calls for two headline objectives: deploying 20 Starlink simulator satellites on a suborbital trajectory, while also testing orbital refuelling and docking manoeuvres — capabilities that are critical for NASA’s Artemis programme. Two modified satellites will transmit real-time footage of the heat shield during re-entry.
The test is one of three launches SpaceX is conducting in a 24-hour window. A Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on Tuesday evening, carrying 23 Starlink V2 Mini satellites on a brand-new booster that touched down on the drone ship “Just Read the Instructions” roughly eight minutes after launch. A third mission is scheduled from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, where a Falcon 9 will deliver 24 more Starlink satellites. The company is clearly intent on demonstrating operational cadence across its vehicle fleet.
On the governance front, a far more contentious narrative is unfolding. SpaceX plans a dual-class share structure in which B-shares carry ten votes each — a mechanism that would hand Musk roughly 80% of voting rights, despite his economic stake of about 43%. No sunset clause has been included, meaning Musk could retain permanent control even if his equity stake shrinks significantly over time. Public pension funds in New York and California have voiced serious reservations, and the lack of a time-limited special-rights clause represents a sharp break with conventional corporate governance standards.
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The numbers behind the listing are eye-watering. In the secondary market, SpaceX shares are trading at a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion according to Forge Global, up from $1.25 trillion following the merger with xAI. Investment banks are targeting an IPO valuation in the range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. A 5-to-1 stock split has been confirmed, and the company aims to raise $80 billion in proceeds — enough to surpass the Saudi Aramco IPO as the largest in history.
Starlink is the engine that supports those numbers. The satellite division generated more than half of SpaceX’s $18.7 billion in 2024 revenue. Yet some institutional investors worry that profits from Starlink could be diverted to Musk’s long-term Mars ambitions, with capital returns to shareholders taking a backseat. The conflict between near-term profitability and long-term exploration is central to the allocation debate.
SpaceX’s pending float is also casting a shadow over Tesla. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker have fallen 8.8% in 2026 and still trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 196. BNP Paribas has warned that the IPO could split Tesla’s loyal investor base, as private capital shifts from one Musk-linked company to the other. PitchBook analysts view Wednesday’s Starship test as the most important operational catalyst before the offering.
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Adding to the complexity, Musk suffered a legal setback on 19 May, losing a court battle against OpenAI and Sam Altman. The ruling did not directly affect SpaceX, but it chips away at the broader Musk narrative that partially supports the valuation premium. Early investors, meanwhile, are sitting on extraordinary paper gains: D1 Capital Partners entered at a $36 billion valuation in 2020, and its stake is now estimated at roughly $20 billion. BlackRock is reportedly considering a participation of between $5 billion and $10 billion.
For now, all eyes are on the launch pad in Texas. A successful Flight 12 would strengthen the operational story behind the more-than-trillion-dollar price tag. A failure would amplify the governance debate and force investors to weigh whether the company’s technological promise can safely coexist with the concentration of power in one person’s hands.
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