T-Mobile US Lifts Guidance as Deutsche Telekom Faces Labour Storm at Home

The transatlantic tension at Deutsche Telekom is sharpening. While its American subsidiary is firing on all cylinders, the German parent faces a growing labour dispute that is already weighing on the stock.

T-Mobile US delivered first-quarter numbers on 28 April that beat analyst expectations, prompting the company to raise its full-year customer growth targets. The driving force behind the upgrade is the integration of substantial parts of UScellular, a deal that closed in August 2025. Synergies from the acquisition are materialising, churn remains low, and profitability in the US segment — the biggest contributor to group earnings — continues to improve.

The timing could hardly be more critical for the Bonn-based group. Ver.di, the German services union, has escalated its warning strikes after the second round of wage talks on 27 April ended without any offer from the employer side. Walkouts that began in northern and eastern Germany on Tuesday spread on Wednesday to North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia.

The union is demanding a 6.6 percent pay rise over twelve months for roughly 60,000 tariff employees, plus an annual member bonus of €660. Trainees and dual-study students would receive an extra €120 per month. Ver.di strike leader Pascal Röckert warned that customers would feel the impact through reduced service availability, delays in technical support, disruptions to fibre-optic expansion, and appointment cancellations.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?

The stock is already under pressure. Trading at around €26.76, Deutsche Telekom shares sit roughly 17 percent below their 50-day moving average and have lost nearly four percent since the start of the year, hovering close to their 52-week low. The labour conflict is one factor among several, but it adds a layer of uncertainty just as the company prepares to report its first-quarter figures on 13 May.

Currency movements add another complication. The euro stood at $1.1498 on 31 March, compared with $1.1750 at the end of 2025. Every one-cent shift in the exchange rate moves the group’s net debt by roughly €1 billion, making earnings translation from the US sensitive to foreign-exchange fluctuations.

Deutsche Telekom bought back around €500 million of its own shares in the first quarter, part of a programme designed to offset dilution from employee equity and support earnings per share. The company had previously announced a €2 billion buyback plan for 2026 — a figure that unions routinely cite as evidence that room exists for higher wages.

Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The market consensus for 2026 points to a dividend of €1.25 per share and adjusted earnings of roughly €2.20 per share. On the operational front, the group’s adjusted EBITDA rose 2.8 percent organically to €44.2 billion in 2025, with a target of around €47.4 billion for 2026.

The next round of wage negotiations is scheduled for 11 and 12 May, just one day before the first-quarter results are due. Whether an employer offer materialises by then will shape how the market digests the numbers. For now, the strong performance from T-Mobile US provides a solid foundation — but the noise from the home front is getting harder to ignore.

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