T1 Energy Gets Top Marks for Bankability — But a Short-Seller War Over Tax Credits Is Just Heating Up
Published on 06/22/2026 at 03:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
T1 Energy has rarely seen a dull moment in 2025. The solar manufacturer, which rebranded from FREYR Battery back in February, just collected a pristine "A" rating from independent testing firm Intertek CEA, validating the bankability of its project pipeline. Yet on the other side of the ledger, a short-seller campaign is raising questions about the very tax credits the company has been banking on, leaving investors to weigh certified stability against regulatory risk.
The credit-rating milestone comes as the company delivers some of the strongest top-line numbers in its young history. First-quarter revenue surged 232% to $177.6 million, while gross profit climbed 63.6% to $29.1 million. The expansion comes at a cost, however: net losses widened from $16.2 million to $20.4 million as T1 spends heavily on new capacity. Shares last traded at €8.30, a 1.84% gain on the day and roughly 13% higher for the week. The stock sits about 25% below the 52-week high of €11.00 reached in early June, but has more than doubled from the April low of around €3.00.
Operationally, T1 is running a 5.0-GW module plant in Wilmer, Texas, which produced 2.79 GW of solar modules in 2025 — within the company's own forecast of 2.6 to 3.0 GW. A second facility, a 2.1-GW TOPCon cell factory in Rockdale, is scheduled to start production in the fourth quarter of 2026. But that timeline is under fire. Short seller Fuzzy Panda Research has released drone footage from May that it claims shows negligible construction progress, arguing Rockdale is 12 to 18 months behind schedule. An independent industry expert interviewed by the firm places the realistic start at the end of 2027, noting that nearly every U.S. solar factory has faced delays. Management has not yet revised its official guidance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying T1 Energy?
The broader, more existential battle revolves around the Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules. T1 must show it complies with IRS guidelines to qualify for Section 45X tax credits beyond this year. Fuzzy Panda has cited a whistleblower who allegedly produced 26 invoices indicating that T1 bought more than $65 million worth of solar cells from Chinese partner Trina Solar in the first quarter of 2026 — a period during which executives publicly stated that purchases from Trina had ceased and that four FEOC-compliant suppliers had been lined up. Complicating matters further, IRS guidance issued in February 2026 set July 4, 2025, as the cut-off date for IP licensing agreements relevant to FEOC compliance. T1's license with supplier Evervolt is dated December 29, 2025, well past that deadline.
Roth Capital has pushed back, calling the allegations misleading and stating it believes T1's compliance and license agreements are legally sound. The stock partially recovered from the initial short-attack selloff, but the 24.55% gap to the 52-week high suggests markets are not fully convinced. With annualized volatility near 158%, the shares are pricing in a wide range of outcomes.
In the midst of the noise, T1 is making a strategic move that could redefine its business model. The company is acquiring KORE Power, a battery storage and energy software provider, for roughly $32 million in a mix of equity, cash and assumed debt. The deal gives T1 exposure to the growing market for grid stabilization and AI data-center infrastructure. Management expects the acquired business to contribute positive EBITDA in 2026 and deliver $15 million to $20 million in EBITDA in 2027. The logic: a vertically integrated energy company that bundles solar production, battery storage and system integration is far less dependent on federal tax credits than a pure module manufacturer.
For now, analysts are treading carefully. The consensus price target stands at €8.78, a mere 5.8% above the current level. The relative strength index of 56.9 signals neutral territory — neither overheated nor oversold. The market is not leaning either way; it is waiting. The next quarterly report, expected around the end of August, will offer another data point. Whether it confirms the Intertek "A" rating's implied vote of confidence or the short-seller's skepticism will determine whether T1 can complete its third reinvention in less than two years — from subsidized manufacturer to integrated energy-infrastructure platform.
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