Tender Deadline Passes: Commerzbank’s Fate Now Tied to July 8 Tally and Its Own Bold Promises
Published on 07/04/2026 at 08:15 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The extended swap offer from UniCredit expired at midnight on July 4, and the market is now waiting for the official count. According to Milano Finanza, acceptances reached around 15 percent of Commerzbank’s shares, a surge driven by UniCredit’s own stock rally, which pushed the implied premium above five percent. Adding in shares already held directly and through derivatives, UniCredit could end up with a position of more than 58 percent — enough for effective control over the next annual general meeting.
The stock, however, has brushed off the pressure. Commerzbank shares closed Friday at €37.79, virtually unchanged, and have gained 34 percent over twelve months. That leaves the price just 2.7 percent shy of the 52-week high of €38.85, and the relative strength index suggests the move is not yet overdone.
Commerzbank’s counterpunch: a 21% return promise
Management is not rolling over. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp, dubbed the “Jeanne d’Arc of Commerzbank” by Handelsblatt for her aggressive defence, issued an open letter urging shareholders to reject the offer. The board’s own weapon is a freshly unveiled strategy, “Momentum 2030”, which targets a net profit of €5.9 billion by the end of the decade and a return on equity of 21 percent — a steep climb from the current 12.7 percent.
The ambition rests on concrete numbers from the first quarter of 2026. Operating profit jumped 11 percent to a record €1.4 billion, while net income rose 9 percent to €913 million. On that foundation, Commerzbank has raised its full?year net profit target to at least €3.4 billion, up from earlier guidance.
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Cost cuts, AI, and a generous payout promise
To close the profitability gap, the bank plans to slash its cost?to?income ratio from 53 percent this year to 43 percent by 2030. A €600 million investment in artificial intelligence is expected to deliver an extra €500 million in annual value once fully deployed. The bank is also cutting around 3,000 additional full?time positions across the group — a restructuring that carries its own risk of disruption.
Shareholders have been offered a sweetener: once the CET?1 ratio hits the 13.5 percent target, the payout ratio will rise to 100 percent, among the most generous capital?return policies in European banking.
The risks that could unsettle the plan
Sceptics point to the difficulty of execution. Large?scale job cuts often delay processes and erode revenue, widening the gap between target and reality. The macroeconomic backdrop in Germany remains stable but tepid, and while net interest income held steady in the first quarter despite lower benchmark rates, any further rate moves or a downturn could pressure earnings and increase provisioning.
Analyst Dieter Hein of fairesearch expects UniCredit to play a tactical game. Even if it secures a majority, a full consolidation would immediately drag down its own capital ratio, so the Italian bank may wait until the German government sells its remaining stake before pushing for a full merger.
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What comes next
The official result of the tender offer will be announced on July 8. If the current market estimates are confirmed, UniCredit will have the voting power to influence board appointments at the next shareholder meeting. The government’s packet remains the key to a full takeover.
Commerzbank’s next internal test comes quickly. On August 6 the bank publishes second?quarter figures, which will show whether the operational momentum is sustained and costs are still falling. A strong print would bolster confidence in the standalone strategy; a miss would fuel doubts about the 2030 targets. For now, the 50?day moving average at €36.59 provides a near?term technical floor.
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