The $775 Million Loan That Couldn't Stop Nebius's 15% Slide
Published on 07/25/2026 at 16:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A single trading day erased nearly 15% from Nebius's market value on Friday, wiping out most of the gains from earlier in the week when Nvidia disclosed a roughly $2 billion stake in the AI infrastructure company. The stock closed at $187.77 on the Nasdaq, down from $220.97, while in Frankfurt it settled at €165.20 — a 37% retreat from its 52-week high of €261.00 reached just weeks ago.
The sell-off had nothing to do with Nebius's fundamentals and everything to do with a sector-wide rotation out of richly valued AI infrastructure names. The Nasdaq slipped, technology was the only sector in the red, and peers like CoreWeave and IREN also took hits. For Nebius, the pain was amplified by its extreme volatility — the stock's 30-day annualized volatility stands at 119%, an outlier even by AI industry standards.
A $4.77 Billion Message from the Market
Trading volume in Nebius shares exploded to roughly $4.77 billion on Friday, a more than 40% increase from the prior session, making it the most heavily traded stock of the day. The catalyst wasn't company-specific bad news but a broader risk-off mood fueled by a Moody's warning that the massive capital expenditure plans of big tech firms — estimated at $785 billion industry-wide for 2026 and approaching $1 trillion by 2027 — could strain credit quality across the cloud and AI sector. Adding to the anxiety, bond investors demanded higher yields on Meta's planned $12 billion bond issuance for a Texas data center, signaling growing skepticism about how the AI boom is being financed.
Technically, the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 42.6, a neutral reading that suggests the selling has cooled but hasn't yet reached oversold territory. Over the past 30 days, Nebius has shed roughly a quarter of its value, though it remains sharply higher year-to-date.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The $775 Million Cushion That Didn't Cushion
The irony is that Friday's rout came just after Nebius announced a landmark $775 million secured credit facility on July 17 — its first such debt instrument. The loan is backed by already-deployed GPU infrastructure and contractually committed cash flows from an investment-grade customer. Priced at SOFR plus 2.50% and maturing October 31, 2030, the facility was arranged by a heavyweight banking syndicate led by MUFG as structuring agent and sole bookrunner, with ABN AMRO, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC as mandated lead arrangers. Citi, Crédit Agricole, ING, and Morgan Stanley joined as senior lead arrangers, with Goldman Sachs also participating.
The structure is clever: Nebius is monetizing productive GPU hardware without issuing new shares and diluting existing holders. COO Ophir Nave framed the deal as validation of the company's hybrid approach — blending owned data centers with asset-light partnerships — and pointed to more than $40 billion in additional contracted revenue from investment-grade clients like Microsoft and Meta as evidence that similar deals could follow.
The Numbers That Matter More Than the Stock Price
While the stock gyrated, the operational story only strengthened. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $399 million, up 684% from $50.9 million a year earlier and above the consensus estimate of $391.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $53.7 million to a gain of $129.5 million. The GAAP net income of $621.2 million was largely driven by a $780.6 million non-operating gain from revaluing equity investments, but the underlying trajectory is unmistakable.
Management simultaneously raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $20 billion and $25 billion, up from a prior range of $16 billion to $20 billion, while maintaining its targets of $7 billion to $9 billion in annualized recurring revenue and roughly 40% group EBITDA margins.
Nvidia's Blessing and Meta's Billions
The week's biggest catalyst was Nvidia's Schedule 13G filing, which revealed it holds roughly 22.3 million Nebius shares — a 9.3% stake worth about $2 billion, though the bulk consists of warrants not exercisable until September 11, 2026. That disclosure followed reports of a Meta contract worth up to $27 billion over five years for dedicated AI capacity, adding to an existing $17 billion Microsoft deal. Combined, Nebius's total bookings now exceed $40 billion. The company plans to deploy more than five gigawatts of Nvidia systems by 2030 and recently validated its first Vera Rubin NVL72 rack in Finland.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Insider Sales and Divided Analyst Views
Adding a note of caution: CEO Arkady Volozh and the CFO sold a combined 668,405 shares worth roughly $140 million over the past three months, with Volozh alone cashing out $10.98 million. Those sales come as short interest stands at about 24% of the freely tradable float.
Analyst opinions remain split. Northland recently raised its price target to $410, and Baird upgraded the stock to Strong Buy. But the broader consensus is more measured, with most targets clustering between $222 and $259 and ratings leaning toward "Moderate Buy." The valuation debate is acute: Nebius trades at a price-to-earnings ratio between 60 and over 100 depending on the metric, far above the industry average of roughly 27. The revenue growth is real — 684% doesn't lie — but the stock leaves no room for disappointment.
For now, the market is asking whether the asset-backed financing model can be repeated at scale, whether the contracted demand will convert into sustainable free cash flow, and whether the valuation can withstand the inevitable volatility of a sector spending nearly a trillion dollars a year to build the future.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 25 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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