The Bear and the Architect: Nvidia Rewrites Its Revenue Blueprint While Michael Burry Circles
Published on 07/03/2026 at 15:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Michael Burry, the investor who famously shorted the U.S. housing market before the 2008 crash, has taken aim at Nvidia. His firm, Scion Asset Management, disclosed a short position against the chip giant at around $198 per share, alongside bets on Tesla and the SOXX semiconductor index. He sees echoes of the dot-com era and frets about overcapacity in artificial intelligence. Yet even as Burry prepares for a fall, Nvidia is quietly reconstructing the foundation of its own business—transforming from a one-time hardware seller into a landlord of the AI cloud.
The centerpiece of that reconstruction is a revenue-share model announced on July 2. Instead of selling graphics cards outright, Nvidia now extends credits and hardware access to emerging cloud providers in exchange for a slice of their future sales. CFO Colette Kress describes it as a “usage-based revenue stream.” Sharon AI has already committed to using 40,000 GPUs under this arrangement, and Firmus Technologies is building a 360-megawatt campus in Indonesia to host the hardware. The logic is straightforward: recurring service revenues can smooth over the boom-and-bust cycles that have historically plagued the chip industry.
Nvidia is also placing a second bet on government contracts. The “Sovereign AI” strategy targets public-sector clients that demand isolated, highly secure systems. This week the company formalized a partnership with Palantir to deploy its open-source Nemotron models inside classified U.S. government environments. For Nvidia, locking in state buyers provides a buffer against the whims of commercial cloud demand—a buffer it may soon need.
That need became visible on July 1, when reports surfaced that Meta Platforms was exploring the sale or lease of excess data center capacity. The news rattled the GPU leasing market, underscoring just how fragile the demand for rented compute power can be. Meta, one of Nvidia’s largest customers, is not the only one seeking alternatives. Anthropic is reportedly working with Samsung Foundry on proprietary 2-nanometer AI chips, a move that would reduce its reliance on Nvidia’s accelerators, which still command over 70% of the market.
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On the hardware front, Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin architecture entered full production on June 1. Designed for “agentic AI,” it aims to solve the memory bottlenecks that hamper large-scale training. According to SemiAnalysis, Nvidia simplified the Rubin Ultra design from four compute chiplets to two—a pragmatic step that reduces complexity and improves manufacturing yields. It is not a retreat, but a recognition that mass production requires caution.
The stock market has greeted these moves with a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism. On Thursday, Nvidia shares closed at €170.58, then edged up to €171.70 on Friday—still 15.21% below the May high of €202.50. Over the past 30 days, the stock has shed 7.31%, though it remains 26.60% higher than a year ago. The 50-day moving average stands at €181.36, with the current price 5.33% below that line; the 200-day average of €164.21 sits 4.56% beneath Friday’s level. The 14-day relative-strength index climbed from 41.7 on Thursday to 43.2 on Friday, still in neutral territory.
Valuation, however, tells a different story. Nvidia trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to 22, well below its own five-year average of 53 and the sector median of 34. With expected earnings growth of 81%, the PEG ratio is just 0.49. Some market participants already detect value characteristics, even as Burry warns of a bubble.
Nvidia is also reinforcing its commitment to the model it is building. It invested $800 million in Together AI, a GPU-cloud provider for open-source models, at an $8.3 billion valuation. And on August 24, Nicholas Parker—a 26-year Microsoft veteran—will take over as executive vice president of worldwide field operations, replacing Jay Puri, who is retiring after 21 years at Nvidia.
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For the second quarter, analysts project revenue of $91.73 billion, a 96% year-over-year surge. The board has authorized an $80 billion share buyback, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term cash generation. The consensus price target of €263.63 implies potential upside of 53.5% from Friday’s close—a bet that Wall Street still believes in the “AI factory” vision.
Burry’s short, meanwhile, sits at the intersection of two narratives: one that sees a mature company rewriting its playbook, and another that sees a bubble ready to burst. The next few earnings calls will reveal which story wins the argument.
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