The Great Gold Disconnect: Central Banks Buy 244 Tonnes as Prices Post Worst Quarter Since 2013
Published on 07/03/2026 at 07:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The sell-off gripping gold has been brutal. The yellow metal just suffered its worst quarter in over a decade, shedding roughly 16% between April and June. And yet, beneath the surface of that red ink, a completely different story is playing out among the world's largest institutional buyers.
Central banks added a net 244 tonnes to their reserves in the first quarter of 2026, a figure that tops the 208 tonnes accumulated in the final three months of last year and runs well ahead of the five-year average. May alone saw net purchases of 41 tonnes — and that tally predates the worst of June's slide. Poland led the charge with 18 tonnes, marking its fourth consecutive month of double-digit buying, while China continued its steady accumulation. The structural shift toward Asia is unmistakable: Chinese net imports hit 317 tonnes, a level that analysts at the World Gold Council see as part of a long-term rebalancing that could gradually decouple gold from its traditional reliance on US interest rate cycles.
The damage on price charts, however, is severe. June saw gold tumble 11.7%, following a 1.8% decline in May. The quarterly loss of roughly 16% was the steepest since the second quarter of 2013. On June 30, the metal touched a low of $3,942 per ounce — its weakest since early November 2025. While a modest recovery has lifted the close to $4,131.20 as of Thursday, a gain of 0.67% on the week, the monthly loss still stands at 7.42%. Year-to-date, gold remains 4.85% in the red. The 50-day moving average at $4,425.61 sits 6.65% above the current price, and the relative strength index at 42.6 signals no clear directional bias.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Two forces have combined to pressure the metal. On the monetary policy front, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have dimmed considerably. Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its year-end 2026 target for gold from $5,400 to $4,900, citing a central bank that is unlikely to lower borrowing costs at all this year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, kept his cards close to his chest, noting that inflation risks and expectations had subsided over the past four weeks but offering no forward guidance. The market took its cue instead from a pair of abysmal US labor market reports: the ADP private-sector survey for June showed just 98,000 new jobs, well short of the 110,000 economists had anticipated, and the official non-farm payrolls number came in at a mere 57,000. Those data points pushed bond yields lower, offering a brief reprieve to gold.
Geopolitics adds a second, more unpredictable variable. The World Gold Council's proprietary GRAM model identifies the ongoing US-Iran conflict as the primary driver of the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in gold prices. At the metal's January peak, that premium helped push prices above $5,500. The June correction brought gold close to the psychological $4,000 barrier. The Council's outlook now sketches two divergent paths: escalation could propel prices back toward $5,000 by year-end, while a stable environment would peg fair value closer to $4,100.
Technically, the recovery above $4,100 has brightened the chart picture, but hurdles remain. The next major resistance lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained break above that could open a path toward $4,500. For now, gold sits just 5.89% above its 52-week low of $3,901.30, and the gap between the WGC's base-case of $4,100 and an escalation scenario of $5,000 defines the range of outcomes for the rest of the year. Over the trailing twelve months, the metal still boasts a gain of more than 25%, a reminder that despite the recent carnage, the long-term trend remains decisively higher.
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