The Micron Paradox: Record Revenue and Full Capacity Through 2028, Yet the Stock Sits 25% Below Its Peak
Published on 07/09/2026 at 11:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Micron Technology has posted a staggering 346% year-on-year revenue surge to $41.5 billion in its fiscal third quarter, with net profit rocketing to $28.2 billion. Management has guided for approximately $50 billion in revenue next quarter, comfortably beating Wall Street expectations. The culprit behind the bonanza: high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for artificial intelligence accelerators, whose production lines are booked solid through the end of 2026 and, according to the company, already fully sold for 2027 as well.
Yet the stock is in the midst of a technical correction that has wiped nearly a quarter off its value since the record high of €1,103.80 on June 25. At €831.00 in recent trade, shares are roughly 25% off that peak and trade more than 5% above the 50-day moving average of €786.53. The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 46.6, offering little directional bias. The divergence between operating momentum and price action defines the current debate on the Street.
The bull case rests on a simple premise: demand for HBM chips is so intense that Micron can only satisfy 50% to 60% of it. The company has locked in long-term customer agreements that guarantee minimum revenue of roughly $100 billion — 16 such strategic contracts alone account for over $22 billion. That takes much of the risk out of a planned capital expenditure ramp to $27 billion in fiscal 2026 and more than $40 billion the following year. A separate partnership with AI developer Anthropic further cements Micron’s position in the AI supply chain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
Bulls also point to diversification moves. Micron recently signed multiyear supply deals with automakers Ford and General Motors for automotive-grade DRAM and NAND chips. The consensus analyst price target stands at €1,302.45 (or $1,421.94, depending on the survey), implying upside of about 57% from the current level. The argument that the HBM shortage and high-margin AI demand have become disconnected from short-term stock gyrations has gained traction.
The bear case, however, leans on the industry’s historical cyclicality. While Micron leads in HBM, rival SK Hynix is planning a Nasdaq listing that could draw capital and intensify pricing pressure. Meanwhile, Chinese memory manufacturers are gaining acceptance for DRAM and NAND products, which could compress margins in global contracts over time. Macro headwinds are also in play: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 4.5%, and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing show no sign of easing. With a 30-day annualized volatility of 111.34%, Micron shares are acutely sensitive to any sign of cooling in cloud capex.
Technically, the €775 support zone is the key line in the sand. A decisive break below that level would signal that the current pullback is more than a consolidation and could precede a longer cyclical correction. Conversely, holding above the 50-day moving average and reclaiming recent highs would reinforce the bull narrative. The next major catalyst is likely any management commentary on HBM utilization rates for 2027 — so far only full utilization through end-2026 has been confirmed.
For now, the gap between record revenue and a 25% stock correction presents investors with a stark choice. Those who see the AI infrastructure build-out as a multiyear super-cycle view the weakness as a buying opportunity. Those wary of the memory industry’s boom-bust rhythm — and of emerging competition — will wait for the DRAM pricing picture in the second half of the year to provide a clearer signal.
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