Thyssenkrupp's Defining Moment: EU Steel Shields, a Canadian Mega-Deal, and an Internal Power Struggle

Brussels is throwing Thyssenkrupp a lifeline just as the industrial conglomerate approaches a string of make-or-break decisions. Starting 1 July, the European Union will slash its duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes annually — a reduction of nearly 47% from the current ceiling — and double the tariff on any excess volume to 50%. The European Parliament signed off on the measure on 19 May, and while the Council has yet to formally rubber-stamp the regulation, the trilogue agreement means implementation is all but certain. For Thyssenkrupp, which has lobbied aggressively for tougher safeguards against Chinese overcapacity, the protection arrives at a critical juncture.

On the ground in Duisburg, the company’s steel division is finally regaining its footing. The hot strip mill No. 4 resumed trial operations on 3 June, more than seven months after a flash fire ripped through its furnace area on 24 October 2025. The blast damaged ovens and parts of the roof structure, forcing a prolonged halt at a facility that sits at the heart of the group’s flat-rolled production network. Thyssenkrupp used the downtime not only to replace affected components but also to introduce technical upgrades aimed at boosting availability and process stability. The continuous caster linked to the complex had already been back in action since mid-December, and with digitised slab logistics now online, the plant is once again feeding high-strength steels to the automotive, machinery, construction and energy sectors.

Yet the bigger strategic prize lies underwater. Canada is racing to decide by the end of June on a contract for up to twelve Arctic-capable submarines, and Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems is pitching its Type 212CD design, specifically engineered for operations beneath ice. The rival bid comes from South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean. The numbers involved are staggering: TKMS reported a record order backlog of €20.6 billion as of 31 March, and a Canadian win could add as much as €37 billion to that tally. Thyssenkrupp holds a 51% stake in the separately managed naval unit, whose CEO Oliver Burkhard has flagged a decision within the first half of the year. The German government is providing political backing for the offer. For the parent company, a nod from Ottawa would not only cement prestige but also bolster the valuation of a division that may eventually be carved out — a scenario that fits neatly into the group’s broader portfolio reorganisation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?

That reorganisation is running into resistance. The supervisory board is scheduled to rule this month on the future of Materials Services, the trading arm that generated €11.4 billion in revenue in fiscal 2024/25 and employs more than 15,000 people. Management favours converting the unit into a Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien (KGaA), a structure that would allow Thyssenkrupp to retain operational control even with a minority stake — enabling it to pursue a spin-off, IPO or partial sale without ceding strategic command. The IG Metall union has mounted fierce opposition, arguing that the KGaA model effectively hollows out worker co-determination rights. Deputy supervisory board chairman Jürgen Kerner is now demanding direct talks with CEO Miguel López, particularly after negotiations with potential partner Jindal Steel International were put on ice. Without an external investor on board, the workforce is pressing the company to fund the restructuring from its own balance sheet.

Thyssenkrupp’s finances are sending mixed signals. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025/26, order intake surged 32% to €10.6 billion, propelled by large naval contracts. Adjusted EBIT jumped to €198 million from a meagre €19 million a year earlier, though revenue slipped to €8.4 billion. For the full year, management continues to forecast adjusted EBIT in a range of €500 million to €900 million, but also expects a net loss of between €400 million and €800 million. One persistent headache is Electrical Steel: the French site in Isbergues will halt production entirely from June through September, affecting around 600 workers. Asian suppliers now account for more than half of the EU market for grain-oriented electrical steel, often at prices well below European production costs. Thyssenkrupp has secured a separate EU investigation into protective measures for that segment, but relief is still months away.

Against this operational backdrop, a couple of heavyweight shareholders have trimmed their positions — modestly, but in a period dense with uncertainty. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund lowered its stake from 3.16% to 2.86%, slipping below the 3% disclosure threshold without offering a strategic explanation. BlackRock also reduced its holding, with a voting rights notice dated 3 June showing a total position of 5.51%, down from 5.70%. The stock has largely shrugged off the selling: it closed on Friday at €11.37, down 3.28% on the day but still up roughly 17% year-to-date and 33% over the past twelve months.

By the end of June, three catalysts will have converged: the steady ramp-up of Duisburg’s hot strip mill, Canada’s long-anticipated submarine decision, and a supervisory board verdict on Materials Services. Each has the power to reshape Thyssenkrupp’s valuation. Together, they will determine whether the group’s recovery narrative holds water — or begins to leak.

Ad

Thyssenkrupp Stock: New Analysis - 8 June

Fresh Thyssenkrupp information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Thyssenkrupp analysis...

en | DE0007500001 | THYSSENKRUPPS | boerse | 69502561 |