TUI’s Splashworld Bet Pays Off as Last-Minute Demand Offsets €40 Million Iran War Hit
Published on 06/25/2026 at 18:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
TUI’s share price surged more than 5% on Thursday to €7.71, decisively breaking above the 200-day moving average at €7.67. The rally came despite a €40 million earnings dent from the Iran conflict in the second quarter of 2026, which forced the evacuation of around 10,000 holidaymakers and left two cruise ships stranded in the Persian Gulf for over eight weeks. Hotel construction projects in Oman were also suspended. Yet investors chose to focus on the brighter side of the ledger.
That brighter side is a potent mix of rebounding customer demand and a welcome regulatory cost cut. Chief executive Sebastian Ebel said the package holiday is making a comeback as safety concerns once again dominate consumer decisions. Nicole Pfammatter, head of TUI Switzerland, described a booking wave “not seen in years”, with a pronounced last-minute trend emerging after an initial war-related wobble. To capitalise on this, TUI has launched a dedicated water park brand called Splashworld, bundling 25 family hotels with aquatic attractions in Turkey, Greece, Spain and the Caribbean. The move aims to boost occupancy and margins in the fiercely competitive summer season without relying on deep discounts.
Easing the pressure on the balance sheet is a decision from Berlin: the German Travel Security Fund will halve its levy from November 2026, cutting the charge to 0.25% of turnover from 0.5%. The industry-wide saving amounts to roughly €70 million annually, and as one of the fund’s largest contributors, TUI benefits directly. The fund’s assets have already swelled to around €1 billion, and the company had pushed for an outright reduction to zero. The halving now agreed improves liquidity at a critical juncture.
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Summer capacity is already more than half sold, and availability is tightening fast in popular spots such as mainland Spain, Lanzarote and the smaller Greek islands. Latecomers are increasingly turning to Antalya, Crete or Bulgaria as alternatives. Greece leads the destination ranking for summer 2026, ahead of Spain, Turkey, Italy and Cyprus. Meanwhile, TUI’s experiential travel arm, Musement, sold 1.6 million activities in the second quarter, up 6% year-on-year, as the group integrates multi-day discovery tours and safaris into traditional beach holidays.
Longer term, the company is banking on artificial intelligence to drive earnings. By 2028, AI is expected to contribute a three-digit million-euro improvement to the bottom line, initially through tailored travel suggestions and eventually via direct bookings. For the current financial year, management has guided for adjusted operating profit of between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion, with the summer season acting as the key test.
At €7.71, the stock has recovered more than 26% from its 52-week low reached at the end of April. Still, it remains about 14% in the red since January and trades almost 19% below the year’s peak of €9.50. The relative strength index stands at 68.7, indicating strong upward momentum without entering overbought territory. Falling oil prices are also providing a tailwind for the group’s aviation and cruise operations.
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