Tungsten's Strategic Premium Fuels Almonty's Production Push, Yet the Market Holds Back
Published on 05/15/2026 at 11:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The price of ammonium paratungstate — the key tungsten intermediate — has surged nearly fourfold since January, hitting $3,140 per metric tonne unit on May 8. That rally has upended the math at Almonty Industries, whose Sangdong mine in South Korea began formal operations in March with ambitions to supply over 80% of the world's tungsten output outside China. Yet the stock ended Thursday at C$25.12, down 12.9% over the past month, even as the company posted its first positive quarterly operating cash flow.
The disconnect reflects a market that has priced in the strategy but wants to see the delivery. Diamond Equity Research lifted its current-quarter earnings estimate to $0.14 per share from $0.12, and for fiscal 2027 it now projects $1.23 a share — a clear bet that Sangdong's ramp-up is more than a one-off. But the shares remain 42.3% below a DCF-based fair value of C$43.69, according to the same research, suggesting analysts see plenty of upside if execution holds.
A $9.7 Million Operating Cash Flow Turnaround
First-quarter results gave the bull case its first tangible support. Revenue jumped 221% to C$25.4 million, driven by robust tungsten demand and spot prices at record highs, even as production volumes at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal eased slightly. Operating cash flow swung to C$9.7 million from a negative reading a year earlier, while mine-level operating earnings hit C$13.0 million — up from just C$0.8 million in the prior-year period. The price lever more than compensated for the weaker output.
The company ended March with C$259.9 million in cash and C$169.5 million in working capital, providing a significant cushion to support Sangdong's ramp and development of the Gentung project in Montana, where Almonty recently relocated its headquarters.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The Geopolitical Lens Sharpens
CEO Lewis Black used two major industry appearances this week to frame the story beyond the numbers. At the Critical Minerals Institute Summit in Toronto on Thursday, he delivered a keynote entitled "No Team, No Tungsten, No Time: The Human Capital Crisis in Mining," linking the industry's talent shortage to the broader reorganization of critical-mineral supply chains. Later that day he joined a panel on control of the future economy around critical minerals. On Wednesday he spoke at the BofA Securities Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Miami, also participating in a tungsten roundtable.
Black's timing is deliberate. Western governments are tightening defence-procurement rules, and China continues to use export restrictions on critical raw materials. For industrial customers, source security now matters as much as price. Sangdong, which historically ranked among the world's major tungsten deposits, is positioned to plug that gap for buyers outside China.
Analyst Targets Point Up — But the Stock Has Come Down
Price targets from major firms sit well above Thursday's close. Oppenheimer sets a target of US$19.00, DA Davidson US$25.00, and B. Riley US$23.00. Even the US-dollar targets imply a meaningful premium when converted at current exchange rates, though the shares have given back some of their 108.8% year-to-date gain.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The near-term test is purely operational. If Sangdong ramps as planned and Panasqueira holds steady, the earnings upgrades will start to match the new pricing reality. If either the ramp or APT prices stumble, a stock that already carries elevated expectations could face a sharper adjustment. Almonty has built the narrative — now it has to dig the metal.
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